Friday - October 31, 2008
ALL I DO IS PREDICTIONS
Seems all I do these days is predictions, but what is there to analyze about the way Michigan is playing?
Had a better week last week: 24-18. That's 57%, and good for +10%. That brings me to 94-78, or 54.7%. Return is back to +12% after dropping dangerously near 0 with last week's bad performance.
This week, there are 8! games where my prediction is too close to the spread to make a call.
| Tulsa | | 54 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread |
| Arkansas | 7 | 22 | |
| | | |
| Iowa | 2.5 | 28 | Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread |
| Illinois | | 16 | |
| | | |
| San Diego State | 5 | 23 | San Diego State to win / San Diego State against the spread |
| Wyoming | | 14 | |
| | | |
| Texas Christian | | 40 | Texas Christian to win / Texas Christian against the spread |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 14.5 | 13 | |
| | | |
| Kentucky | 2.5 | 22 | Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread |
| Mississippi State | | 13 | |
| | | |
| Miami (Florida) | 2 | 28 | Miami (Florida) to win / Miami (Florida) against the spread |
| Virginia | | 18 | |
| | | |
| Florida | | 35 | Florida to win / Florida against the spread |
| Georgia | 6.5 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Arkansas State | 23.5 | 15 | Alabama to win / Arkansas State against the spread |
| Alabama | | 30 | |
| | | |
| Boise State | | 40 | Boise State to win / Boise State against the spread |
| New Mexico State | 21.5 | 10 | |
| | | |
| East Carolina | | 29 | East Carolina to win / East Carolina against the spread |
| Central Florida | 4 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Nebraska | 21 | 28 | Oklahoma to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Oklahoma | | 41 | |
| | | |
| Troy | | 38 | Troy to win / Troy against the spread |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 10 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Tulane | 26.5 | 19 | Louisiana State to win / Tulane against the spread |
| Louisiana State | | 38 | |
| | | |
| Missouri | | 49 | Missouri to win / Missouri against the spread |
| Baylor | 21 | 21 | |
| | | |
| Brigham Young | | 37 | Brigham Young to win / Brigham Young against the spread |
| Colorado State | 14.5 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Duke | 7.5 | 16 | Wake Forest to win / Duke against the spread |
| Wake Forest | | 16 | |
| | | |
| Central Michigan | 2 | 30 | Central Michigan to win / Central Michigan against the spread |
| Indiana | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Louisville | | 38 | Louisville to win / Louisville against the spread |
| Syracuse | 13.5 | 18 | |
| | | |
| Kansas State | 8.5 | 32 | Kansas to win / Kansas State against the spread |
| Kansas | | 35 | |
| | | |
| North Texas | 16.5 | 18 | Western Kentucky to win / North Texas against the spread |
| Western Kentucky | | 29 | |
| | | |
| Auburn | 6.5 | 19.8 | Mississippi to win / Auburn against the spread |
| Mississippi | | 20.4 | |
| | | |
| San Jose State | | 36 | San Jose State to win / San Jose State against the spread |
| Idaho | 16.5 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Rice | | 48 | Rice to win / Rice against the spread |
| Texas-El Paso | 3 | 40 | |
| | | |
| West Virginia | | 17 | Connecticut to win / Connecticut against the spread |
| Connecticut | 4 | 18 | |
| | | |
| Texas | | 34 | Texas to win / Texas against the spread |
| Texas Tech | 3.5 | 26 | |
| | | |
| Temple | 7 | 18 | Navy to win / Temple against the spread |
| Navy | | 20 | |
| | | |
| Kent | 6.5 | 25 | Bowling Green State to win / Kent against the spread |
| Bowling Green State | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Tennessee | 6 | 13 | South Carolina to win / Tennessee against the spread |
| South Carolina | | 15 | |
| | | |
| Air Force | | 23 | Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread |
| Army | 7.5 | 13 | |
| | | |
| Utah | | 29 | Utah to win / Utah against the spread |
| New Mexico | 7.5 | 18 | |
| | | |
| Arizona State | 15.5 | 17 | Oregon State to win / Oregon State against the spread |
| Oregon State | | 35 | |
| | | |
| Northwestern | 7.5 | 18 | Minnesota to win / Northwestern against the spread |
| Minnesota | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 8.5 | 26 | Southern Mississippi to win / Southern Mississippi against the spread |
| Southern Mississippi | | 37 | |
| | | |
| Hawaii | | 29 | Hawaii to win / Hawaii against the spread |
| Utah State | 6.5 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Clemson | 3.5 | 20 | Boston College to win / Clemson against the spread |
| Boston College | | 21 | |
| | | |
| Fresno State | | 28 | Fresno State to win / Fresno State against the spread |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 21 | |
| | | |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 24 | Notre Dame to win / Pittsburgh against the spread |
| Notre Dame | | 27 | |
| | | |
| Washington | 46 | 5 | Southern California to win / Southern California against the spread |
| Southern California | | 52 | |
| | | |
| Washington State | 30 | 13 | Stanford to win / Washington State against the spread |
| Stanford | | 42 | |
| | | |
| Iowa State | 30 | 19 | Oklahoma State to win / Iowa State against the spread |
| Oklahoma State | | 48 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Colorado | 3.5 | 23 | Texas A&M to win / Texas A&M against the spread |
| Texas A&M | | 27 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Florida International | 7.5 | 25 | Louisiana-Lafayette to win / Florida International against the spread |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | | 31 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Eastern Michigan | 18 | 21 | Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread |
| Western Michigan | | 39 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Oregon | 2.5 | 35 | California to win / California against the spread |
| California | | 38 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Michigan | 1.5 | 21 | Purdue to win / Michigan against the spread |
| Purdue | | 22 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Florida State | 2 | 19 | Georgia Tech to win / Georgia Tech against the spread |
| Georgia Tech | | 21 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Wisconsin | 5.5 | 21 | Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread |
| Michigan State | | 26 | Prediction too close to spread |
Posted at 07:16 PM Read More
Friday - October 24, 2008
And It All Comes Crashing Down
So this is how my pride ends, not with a whimper but a bang.
I went 29-15 three weeks ago and felt great.
I went 23-19 two weeks ago said "still above water".
The two week return was +35%.
And last week ... 18-26. Almost bad enough to give back both weeks. On it's own, it would have lost you nearly a quarter of your money. Combined, I stand at 70-60 (53.9%) and +2% for the year. And no, I won't even mention the game I lost (would have had a push) because of a PAT blocked and returned for 2.
So we'll give it another try.
USA Today was available again, and Logan's it still is.
5 games (at the bottom) where my prediction was too close to the spread to call.
| Minnesota | 1 | 32 | Minnesota to win / Minnesota against the spread |
| Purdue | | 16 | |
| | | |
| Kentucky | 25.5 | 13 | Florida to win / Kentucky against the spread |
| Florida | | 22 | |
| | | |
| Troy | | 51 | Troy to win / Troy against the spread |
| North Texas | 23.5 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Middle Tennessee State | 10 | 18 | Middle Tennessee State to win / Middle Tennessee State against the spread |
| Mississippi State | | 15 | |
| | | |
| Rice | 2.5 | 37 | Rice to win / Rice against the spread |
| Tulane | | 27 | |
| | | |
| New Mexico State | | 47 | New Mexico State to win / New Mexico State against the spread |
| Idaho | 12.5 | 24 | |
| | | |
| Georgia | 1 | 32 | Georgia to win / Georgia against the spread |
| Louisiana State | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Mississippi | | 39 | Mississippi to win / Mississippi against the spread |
| Arkansas | 6.5 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Michigan State | | 29 | Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread |
| Michigan | 4 | 16 | |
| | | |
| Nevada | | 35 | Nevada to win / Nevada against the spread |
| Hawaii | 3.5 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Northwestern | | 33 | Northwestern to win / Northwestern against the spread |
| Indiana | 7.5 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Penn State | | 24 | Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread |
| Ohio State | 2.5 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Kent | 5 | 24 | Kent to win / Kent against the spread |
| Miami (Ohio) | | 22 | |
| | | |
| Central Michigan | | 33 | Central Michigan to win / Central Michigan against the spread |
| Toledo | 3.5 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Boise State | | 21 | Boise State to win / Boise State against the spread |
| San Jose State | 7 | 8 | |
| | | |
| Notre Dame | | 34 | Notre Dame to win / Notre Dame against the spread |
| Washington | 10.5 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Duke | 10.5 | 19 | Vanderbilt to win / Duke against the spread |
| Vanderbilt | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Central Florida | 24 | 18 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread |
| Tulsa | | 48 | |
| | | |
| Colorado | 24 | 20 | Missouri to win / Colorado against the spread |
| Missouri | | 39 | |
| | | |
| Southern California | | 26 | Southern California to win / Arizona against the spread |
| Arizona | 15 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Boston College | 2.5 | 23 | Boston College to win / Boston College against the spread |
| North Carolina | | 20 | |
| | | |
| Bowling Green State | 7.5 | 17 | Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread |
| Northern Illinois | | 30 | |
| | | |
| South Florida | | 32 | South Florida to win / South Florida against the spread |
| Louisville | 4 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Oklahoma | | 49 | Oklahoma to win / Oklahoma against the spread |
| Kansas State | 18.5 | 25 | |
| | | |
| Alabama | | 22 | Alabama to win / Alabama against the spread |
| Tennessee | 4.5 | 12 | |
| | | |
| Southern Methodist | 12 | 26 | Navy to win / Navy against the spread |
| Navy | | 43 | |
| | | |
| Eastern Michigan | 25.5 | 13 | Ball State to win / Ball State against the spread |
| Ball State | | 43 | |
| | | |
| Texas Tech | | 32 | Texas Tech to win / Texas Tech against the spread |
| Kansas | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Florida Atlantic | | 21 | Louisiana-Monroe to win / Louisiana-Monroe against the spread |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 1.5 | 24 | |
| | | |
| UCLA | 18 | 17 | California to win / California against the spread |
| California | | 40 | |
| | | |
| Illinois | | 32 | Illinois to win / Illinois against the spread |
| Wisconsin | 2.5 | 25 | |
| | | |
| Virginia Tech | 6.5 | 23 | Florida State to win / Virginia Tech against the spread |
| Florida State | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Fresno State | | 41 | Fresno State to win / Fresno State against the spread |
| Utah State | 15 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 28 | Texas A&M to win / Texas A&M against the spread |
| Iowa State | | 27 | |
| | | |
| Oregon | | 26 | Arizona State to win / Arizona State against the spread |
| Arizona State | 3 | 27 | |
| | | |
| Southern Mississippi | | 30 | Southern Mississippi to win / Memphis against the spread |
| Memphis | 4.5 | 28 | |
| | | |
| Baylor | 13 | 22 | Nebraska to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Nebraska | | 38 | |
| | | |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 24 | 15 | Brigham Young to win / Nevada-Las Vegas against the spread |
| Brigham Young | | 38 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana Tech | 2.5 | 17 | Army to win / Louisiana Tech against the spread |
| Army | | 18 | |
| | | |
| Oklahoma State | 12 | 25 | Texas to win / Oklahoma State against the spread |
| Texas | | 36 | |
| | | |
| North Carolina State | 12 | 18 | Maryland to win / North Carolina State against the spread |
| Maryland | | 29 | |
| | | |
| Virginia | 14 | 11 | Georgia Tech to win / Georgia Tech against the spread |
| Georgia Tech | | 26 | |
| | | |
| Wake Forest | 2.5 | 18 | Miami (Florida) to win / Miami (Florida) against the spread |
| Miami (Florida) | | 21 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Rutgers | 10 | 15 | Pittsburgh to win / Rutgers against the spread |
| Pittsburgh | | 24 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Colorado State | | 28 | Colorado State to win / San Diego State against the spread |
| San Diego State | 9.5 | 19 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Wyoming | 31 | 4 | Texas Christian to win / Wyoming against the spread |
| Texas Christian | | 35 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Cincinnati | | 21 | Cincinnati to win / Connecticut against the spread |
| Connecticut | 2.5 | 19 | Prediction too close to spread |
Posted at 09:04 PM Read More
Friday - October 17, 2008
Still Above Water
Last Week was 23-19, which is just barely above the break-even (22-20 would have been break even). That would be +5% for the week and along with the 29-15 in Week 1, now +35% for the year. I'm satisfied. Let's see how long my luck holds out.
Not as confident this week. Among other things, I did it in a hurry; who knows how many typos are in here!<p>
Couple of house-keeping things. Didn't do this in time to predict Thursday and Friday games, obviously, but also didn't do it in time to get odds off the USA Today page, so this week I used the first entry on the Rivals/Yahoo odds page, labeled Oddsmakers.com.
| Florida Atlantic | | 14 | Troy to win / Troy against the spread |
| Troy | 10 | 32 | |
| | | |
| North Carolina | | 35 | North Carolina to win / North Carolina against the spread |
| Virginia | 4 | 15 | |
| | | |
| Arkansas | 7.5 | 11 | Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread |
| Kentucky | | 34 | |
| | | |
| Houston | | 51 | Houston to win / Houston against the spread |
| Southern Methodist | 13.5 | 23 | |
| | | |
| Arkansas State | 3 | 39 | Arkansas State to win / Arkansas State against the spread |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Idaho | 20.5 | 20 | Louisiana Tech to win / Idaho against the spread |
| Louisiana Tech | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Kansas State | 3.5 | 35 | Kansas State to win / Kansas State against the spread |
| Colorado | | 26 | |
| | | |
| Air Force | | 36 | Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 4.5 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Oregon State | | 49 | Oregon State to win / Oregon State against the spread |
| Washington | 16 | 22 | |
| | | |
| Connecticut | 1 | 23 | Connecticut to win / Connecticut against the spread |
| Rutgers | | 14 | |
| | | |
| Vanderbilt | 14.5 | 19 | Georgia to win / Vanderbilt against the spread |
| Georgia | | 24 | |
| | | |
| Memphis | 8 | 29 | Memphis to win / Memphis against the spread |
| East Carolina | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Western Michigan | | 34 | Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread |
| Central Michigan | 1.5 | 24 | |
| | | |
| Wisconsin | 3.5 | 13 | Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread |
| Iowa | | 24 | |
| | | |
| Middle Tennessee State | 14.5 | 19 | Louisville to win / Middle Tennessee State against the spread |
| Louisville | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Indiana | 15.5 | 26 | Illinois to win / Indiana against the spread |
| Illinois | | 34 | |
| | | |
| Ohio State | | 16 | Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread |
| Michigan State | 3.5 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Wake Forest | | 23 | Wake Forest to win / Wake Forest against the spread |
| Maryland | 2 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Kansas | 19.5 | 24 | Oklahoma to win / Kansas against the spread |
| Oklahoma | | 36 | |
| | | |
| Mississippi | 12 | 18 | Alabama to win / Alabama against the spread |
| Alabama | | 38 | |
| | | |
| Akron | | 32 | Akron to win / Akron against the spread |
| Eastern Michigan | 5 | 20 | |
| | | |
| San Diego State | 14.5 | 16 | New Mexico to win / San Diego State against the spread |
| New Mexico | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Michigan | 24.5 | 9 | Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread |
| Penn State | | 40 | |
| | | |
| Missouri | 4.5 | 25 | Texas to win / Texas against the spread |
| Texas | | 35 | |
| | | |
| Nebraska | | 39 | Nebraska to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Iowa State | 7.5 | 26 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana State | | 21 | South Carolina to win / South Carolina against the spread |
| South Carolina | 2.5 | 24 | |
| | | |
| Purdue | 4 | 15 | Northwestern to win / Northwestern against the spread |
| Northwestern | | 24 | |
| | | |
| Stanford | | 28 | Stanford to win / Stanford against the spread |
| UCLA | 2.5 | 21 | |
| | | |
| Georgia Tech | | 21 | Georgia Tech to win / Georgia Tech against the spread |
| Clemson | 2.5 | 13 | |
| | | |
| San Jose State | | 26 | San Jose State to win / San Jose State against the spread |
| New Mexico State | 1.5 | 19 | |
| | | |
| Texas Tech | | 45 | Texas Tech to win / Texas Tech against the spread |
| Texas A&M | 21 | 19 | |
| | | |
| Florida Atlantic | | 17 | Western Kentucky to win / Western Kentucky against the spread |
| Western Kentucky | 2.5 | 19 | |
| | | |
| Toledo | 9.5 | 17 | Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread |
| Northern Illinois | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 16 | Boston College to win / Boston College against the spread |
| Boston College | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Army | 11 | 19 | Buffalo to win / Army against the spread |
| Buffalo | | 26 | |
| | | |
| Mississippi State | 7 | 12 | Tennessee to win / Mississippi State against the spread |
| Tennessee | | 16 | |
| | | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 9.5 | 19 | Bowling Green State to win / Bowling Green State against the spread |
| Bowling Green State | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Southern California | | 52 | Southern California to win / Southern California against the spread |
| Washington State | 42 | 8 | |
| | | |
| Colorado State | 21.5 | 16 | Utah to win / Colorado State against the spread |
| Utah | | 36 | |
| | | |
| Marshall | | 26 | Marshall to win / Alabama-Birmingham against the spread |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 3 | 25 | |
| | | |
| Pittsburgh | | 29 | Pittsburgh to win / Navy against the spread |
| Navy | 2.5 | 28 | |
| | | |
| Baylor | 17.5 | 27 | Oklahoma State to win / Oklahoma State against the spread |
| Oklahoma State | | 46 | |
| | | |
| North Texas | 18 | 18 | Louisiana-Monroe to win / Louisiana-Monroe against the spread |
| Louisiana-Monroe | | 37 | |
| | | |
| Southern Mississippi | 1.5 | 38.1 | Rice to win / Southern Mississippi against the spread |
| Rice | | 38.3 | |
| | | |
| Miami (Florida) | | 24 | Miami (Florida) to win / Duke against the spread |
| Duke | 3 | 21 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| California | | 28 | California to win / California against the spread |
| Arizona | 2.5 | 24 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Syracuse | 24 | 16 | South Florida to win / South Florida against the spread |
| South Florida | | 41 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Texas-El Paso | 18 | 31 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread |
| Tulsa | | 50 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Utah State | 22 | 23 | Nevada to win / Utah State against the spread |
| Nevada | | 45 | Prediction too close to spread |
Posted at 11:26 PM Read More
Thursday - October 09, 2008
And Stupidity Shall Be Rewarded
Warren Buffet can't promise you returns like this.
I made predictions on 47 games last week: 2 of them were too close to the spread for me to make a call and 1 wound up in a push (Central Florida was favored by 14 over SMU and won 31-17). That left 44 games to measure, and my method (VHR) went 29-15, or 65.9%. For those who don't gamble, break even against the spread is 52.3% (or 11/21). 29-15 is a +28% return (if you bet $1000 total on my picks, you'd have $1280 back).
I don't expect to go 29-15 every week.
The best picks of the week:
Predicted: Texas 38 - Colorado 13
Actual: Texas 38 - Colorado 14
Predicted: Oklahoma 50 - Baylor 17
Actual: Oklahoma 49 - Baylor 17
There were some bad ones in there, but I'd rather focus on the good ones.
Before I get to the coming week, one housekeeping note. Last week I linked
USA Today's spreads and used a column labeled "Opening". Someone who actually does bet tells me that's not appropriate, because it's hard to actual place a wager against the opening line. So this week, I'll placate that concern, I hope, by using the line marked Logans. I have no idea who the Logans are, but their spread is in effect for Week 7.
So on to Week 7 predictions.
And you'll note one very amusing one: Texas 23 - Oklahoma 23, and it declares Oklahoma the winner. That's because it's actually Texas 22.8 - Oklahoma 23.1.
Remember, these do not factor in HFA, not in the data that is used to calculate the score nor as an adjustment at the end. Picks with the greatest difference between my score and the spread are at the top, and the closest are at the bottom, including a surprising 6 games where my pick is <1 pt from the spread.
| Team | Spread | Score | Prediction |
| Tulsa | | 66 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread |
| Southern Methodist | 25 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Minnesota | 12.5 | 32 | Minnesota to win / Minnesota against the spread |
| Illinois | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Arizona | | 40 | Arizona to win / Arizona against the spread |
| Stanford | 6.5 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Ball State | | 43 | Ball State to win / Ball State against the spread |
| Western Kentucky | 15.5 | 13 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | | 52 | Louisiana-Lafayette to win / Louisiana-Lafayette against the spread |
| North Texas | 21.5 | 16 | |
| | | |
| Boise State | | 38 | Boise State to win / Boise State against the spread |
| Southern Mississippi | 11 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Kansas State | | 40 | Kansas State to win / Kansas State against the spread |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 25 | |
| | | |
| Toledo | 16 | 25 | Michigan to win / Toledo against the spread |
| Michigan | | 29 | |
| | | |
| Temple | 7.5 | 21 | Temple to win / Temple against the spread |
| Central Michigan | | 17 | |
| | | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 11 | 13 | Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread |
| Northern Illinois | | 35 | |
| | | |
| Syracuse | 24 | 16 | West Virginia to win / Syracuse against the spread |
| West Virginia | | 29 | |
| | | |
| Nebraska | 20.5 | 26 | Texas Tech to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Texas Tech | | 36 | |
| | | |
| Vanderbilt | | 24 | Vanderbilt to win / Vanderbilt against the spread |
| Mississippi State | 2.5 | 11 | |
| | | |
| Texas Christian | | 36 | Texas Christian to win / Texas Christian against the spread |
| Colorado State | 15 | 11 | |
| | | |
| Purdue | 18.5 | 16 | Ohio State to win / Purdue against the spread |
| Ohio State | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Penn State | | 30 | Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Iowa State | 4.5 | 35 | Iowa State to win / Iowa State against the spread |
| Baylor | | 31 | |
| | | |
| South Carolina | | 9 | Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread |
| Kentucky | 1 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 32 | Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread |
| Buffalo | | 24 | |
| | | |
| Tulane | 4.5 | 24 | Texas-El Paso to win / Texas-El Paso against the spread |
| Texas-El Paso | | 36 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 13 | 15 | Arkansas State to win / Arkansas State against the spread |
| Arkansas State | | 35 | |
| | | |
| Rutgers | 7.5 | 15 | Cincinnati to win / Cincinnati against the spread |
| Cincinnati | | 30 | |
| | | |
| Middle Tennessee State | 2 | 19 | Middle Tennessee State to win / Middle Tennessee State against the spread |
| Florida International | | 14 | |
| | | |
| Texas | 7 | 23 | Oklahoma to win / Texas against the spread |
| Oklahoma | | 23 | |
| | | |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 18 | 25 | Houston to win / Houston against the spread |
| Houston | | 50 | |
| | | |
| East Carolina | | 28 | East Carolina to win / East Carolina against the spread |
| Virginia | 6 | 15 | |
| | | |
| Arizona State | 28 | 10 | Southern California to win / Arizona State against the spread |
| Southern California | | 32 | |
| | | |
| Utah | | 38 | Utah to win / Utah against the spread |
| Wyoming | 23 | 9 | |
| | | |
| Oklahoma State | 14 | 36 | Missouri to win / Oklahoma State against the spread |
| Missouri | | 44 | |
| | | |
| Utah State | 14 | 17 | San Jose State to win / Utah State against the spread |
| San Jose State | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana Tech | 7.54 | 20 | Hawaii to win / Louisiana Tech against the spread |
| Hawaii | | 22 | |
| | | |
| UCLA | 18 | 20 | Oregon to win / Oregon against the spread |
| Oregon | | 43 | |
| | | |
| Air Force | | 31 | Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread |
| San Diego State | 10.5 | 16 | |
| | | |
| New Mexico | 23.5 | 13 | Brigham Young to win / New Mexico against the spread |
| Brigham Young | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Louisville | | 27 | Louisville to win / Memphis against the spread |
| Memphis | 6.5 | 25 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana State | 6 | 17 | Florida to win / Florida against the spread |
| Florida | | 27 | |
| | | |
| Iowa | | 23 | Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread |
| Indiana | 6 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Washington State | 30 | 14 | Oregon State to win / Oregon State against the spread |
| Oregon State | | 47 | |
| | | |
| New Mexico State | 19 | 25 | Nevada to win / New Mexico State against the spread |
| Nevada | | 40 | |
| | | |
| Idaho | 34 | 20 | Fresno State to win / Idaho against the spread |
| Fresno State | | 51 | |
| | | |
| Central Florida | 17 | 16 | Miami (Florida) to win / Miami (Florida) against the spread |
| Miami (Florida) | | 36 | |
| | | |
| Tennessee | 12 | 15 | Georgia to win / Tennessee against the spread |
| Georgia | | 24 | |
| | | |
| Eastern Michigan | 0 | 20 | Army to win / Army against the spread |
| Army | | 22 | |
| | | |
| Bowling Green State | | 24 | Akron to win / Akron against the spread |
| Akron | 0 | 26 | |
| | | |
| Ohio | | 26 | Ohio to win / Ohio against the spread |
| Kent | 1 | 25 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Colorado | 14 | 19 | Kansas to win / Colorado against the spread |
| Kansas | | 32 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Clemson | 1.5 | 17 | Wake Forest to win / Wake Forest against the spread |
| Wake Forest | | 19 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Michigan State | | 18 | Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 16 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Notre Dame | 7.5 | 19 | North Carolina to win / Notre Dame against the spread |
| North Carolina | | 26 | Prediction too close to spread |
| | | |
| Arkansas | 18.5 | 8 | Auburn to win / Auburn against the spread |
| Auburn | | 27 | Prediction too close to spread |
Posted at 06:54 PM Read More
Friday - October 03, 2008
Stupid Feats of Gambling Derring-Do
Loyal readers of my blog may have a memory, rattling around in their brain, of my talking about my "ranking algorithm", a mathematically simple way of ranking teams, calculating individual offensive and defensive power ratings and, when I'm feeling really ambitious, predicting the scores of upcoming games.
Without going into too much detail, the algorithm works something like this:
For each game you play, you either get + or - pts depending on the quality of the team you faced. A win over an otherwise undefeated team = 2 points. A win over a winless team = 1 point. A loss to an undefeated team = -1 point. A loss to an otherwise winless team = -2 points. You can see already that beating a terrible team is better than losing to a good team. That's because this algorithm is meant to do one thing only, and that is rank teams at year end. After 13 games, your record is the most critical factor in your ranking, and wins are better than losses. But among 12-1 teams, the ones with the hardest schedules rise.
The offensive ratings are a measure of how many points you score, relative to the quality of the defenses you've faced. If you face a team that gives up 30 on average, and you score 20, you get 0.667 (20/30). 1 = average, higher is better and lower is worse.
Defense is the same. If you face a team that scores 30 and you give up 20, you get 0.667 (20/30). 1 = average, higher is worse and lower is better.
And then, it simply uses your offensive and defensive ratings, your offensive and defense PPG averages and those of your opponents and calculates a predicted score. I'll leave the math elsewhere.
I did this for a couple of years in the late 90s just predicting scores, seeing how often I'd get the winner right (high 70s %age wise). Someone suggested I try spreads.
I do not gamble. I don't like gambling. I don't encourage people to gamble. I tested my algorithm against the spread solely for the fun of seeing if it worked. And what I found was, in a way, it did. If you just tally up on what %age of games, my score prediction was on the correct side of the spread (that is, if my algorithm said Texas would win by 8 and they were favored by 11, bet against Texas), it beat the magic 52% break even for the week with regularity. 80% of the time or so, if I remember correctly.
I ought to make picks by percentages. The algorithm, when applied properly, creates a set of simulated games. I ought to calculate what %age are on each side of the spread, but I have misplaced my template, and I don't have time to rewrite all the macros before kickoff tomorrow. For today, just a shortcut that creates 1 average game result.
But ... and this is a big caveat when you look at the chart below, the scores my algorithm predicted were often crazy taken on their own. A team would be a 13 point underdog. My algorithm would have them winning by 17. I say bet the underdog, and they lose by 6. I'm actually, on average, further from the correct score than the Vegas oddsmakers, but somehow, even after testing this for 5 years, I'm consistently able to beat the spread doing that. And really, I did - I even posted them online every week.
So the upshot is this:
For the first time in a couple years, I'll be doing this again. I'll probably make myself look foolish. I seem to be under the impression that Kentucky can beat Alabama (and I can tell you right now that I know why and I know my algorithm is being fooled by Kentucky's schedule). But I am not encouraging anyone to use my numbers below for anything other than amusement. If I hear even a rumor that *anyone* has used my numbers to place a wager, I will come to their house, steal their pennies, drink straight from their milk carton and walk all over their petunias in a fit of rage.
The spreads are the "Opening" column from
USA Today.
Some numbers may not seem to add up, due to rounding.
The ones where my predicted score is furthest from the spread are at the top.
The "spread" column has a positive number next to the team getting points.
I've noted games where my prediction and the spread are within 1 pt. I don't tally those.
| Team | Spread | Score | Prediction |
| Ball State | | 58 | Ball State to win / Ball State against the spread |
| Toledo | 7 | 26 | |
| | | |
| Northern Illinois | 16 | 24 | Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread |
| Tennessee | | 16 | |
| | | |
| Kentucky | 16.5 | 15 | Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread |
| Alabama | | 13 | |
| | | |
| Penn State | | 45 | Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread |
| Purdue | 12 | 16 | |
| | | |
| Boston College | | 30 | Boston College to win / Boston College against the spread |
| North Carolina State | 8 | 6 | |
| | | |
| Florida | | 48 | Florida to win / Florida against the spread |
| Arkansas | 22 | 11 | |
| | | |
| Southern Methodist | 14 | 27 | Southern Methodist to win / Southern Methodist against the spread |
| Central Florida | | 26 | |
| | | |
| Temple | 7 | 20 | Temple to win / Temple against the spread |
| Miami (Ohio) | | 13 | |
| | | |
| Western Kentucky | 28 | 16 | Virginia Tech to win / Western Kentucky against the spread |
| Virginia Tech | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Cincinnati | | 34 | Cincinnati to win / Cincinnati against the spread |
| Marshall | 3.5 | 18 | |
| | | |
| Maryland | | 36 | Maryland to win / Maryland against the spread |
| Virginia | 14 | 10 | |
| | | |
| Washington State | 16.5 | 22 | UCLA to win / Washington State against the spread |
| UCLA | | 27 | |
| | | |
| Brigham Young | | 51 | Brigham Young to win / Brigham Young against the spread |
| Utah State | 28.5 | 11 | |
| | | |
| Texas | | 38 | Texas to win / Texas against the spread |
| Colorado | 14 | 13 | |
| | | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | | 33 | Louisiana-Lafayette to win / Louisiana-Lafayette against the spread |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 1.5 | 20 | |
| | | |
| Florida State | 3 | 24 | Florida State to win / Florida State against the spread |
| Miami (Florida) | | 17 | |
| | | |
| Iowa | 8 | 16 | Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread |
| Michigan State | | 15 | |
| | | |
| Nevada | | 56 | Nevada to win / Nevada against the spread |
| Idaho | 24.5 | 22 | |
| | | |
| Duke | 14 | 20 | Georgia Tech to win / Duke against the spread |
| Georgia Tech | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 1 | 29 | Nevada-Las Vegas to win / Nevada-Las Vegas against the spread |
| Colorado State | | 22 | |
| | | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 23 | Connecticut to win / Connecticut against the spread |
| North Carolina | | 22 | |
| | | |
| Washington | 19 | 16 | Arizona to win / Arizona against the spread |
| Arizona | | 43 | |
| | | |
| Eastern Michigan | 21 | 18 | Bowling Green State to win / Eastern Michigan against the spread |
| Bowling Green State | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Missouri | | 36 | Missouri to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Nebraska | 10 | 34 | |
| | | |
| Oregon | 16.5 | 23 | Southern California to win / Oregon against the spread |
| Southern California | | 32 | |
| | | |
| Arizona State | 9.5 | 18 | California to win / California against the spread |
| California | | 34 | |
| | | |
| Ohio | 4 | 20 | Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread |
| Western Michigan | | 30 | |
| | | |
| Rutgers | 13.5 | 12 | West Virginia to win / Rutgers against the spread |
| West Virginia | | 19 | |
| | | |
| Akron | | 29 | Akron to win / Akron against the spread |
| Kent | 4 | 19 | |
| | | |
| Illinois | 2 | 29 | Illinois to win / Illinois against the spread |
| Michigan | | 25 | |
| | | |
| Oklahoma | | 50 | Oklahoma to win / Oklahoma against the spread |
| Baylor | 27 | 17 | |
| | | |
| Ohio State | | 19 | Wisconsin to win / Wisconsin against the spread |
| Wisconsin | 2.5 | 21 | |
| | | |
| Texas A&M | 24 | 19 | Oklahoma State to win / Oklahoma State against the spread |
| Oklahoma State | | 48 | |
| | | |
| Kansas | | 36 | Kansas to win / Kansas against the spread |
| Iowa State | 13 | 18 | |
| | | |
| San Diego State | 24.5 | 12 | Texas Christian to win / San Diego State against the spread |
| Texas Christian | | 32 | |
| | | |
| Army | 19 | 9 | Tulane to win / Army against the spread |
| Tulane | | 24 | |
| | | |
| South Carolina | 2 | 20 | South Carolina to win / South Carolina against the spread |
| Mississippi | | 18 | |
| | | |
| Rice | 14 | 38 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread |
| Tulsa | | 55 | |
| | | |
| Hawaii | 21.5 | 19 | Fresno State to win / Hawaii against the spread |
| Fresno State | | 38 | |
| | | |
| Indiana | 7.5 | 26 | Minnesota to win / Indiana against the spread |
| Minnesota | | 31 | |
| | | |
| Stanford | 7.5 | 19 | Notre Dame to win / Notre Dame against the spread |
| Notre Dame | | 28 | |
| | | |
| Florida International | | 22 | Florida International to win / Florida International against the spread |
| North Texas | 6.5 | 14 | |
| | | |
| Wyoming | 11 | 14 | New Mexico to win / New Mexico against the spread |
| New Mexico | | 27 | |
| | | |
| Auburn | | 14 | Auburn to win / Vanderbilt against the spread |
| Vanderbilt | 3.5 | 12 | |
| | | |
| Texas-El Paso | 8 | 32 | Southern Mississippi to win / Texas-El Paso against the spread |
| Southern Mississippi | | 39 | |
| | | |
| Navy | 6 | 21 | Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread |
| Air Force | | 27 | (under 1 pt difference) |
| | | |
| Texas Tech | | 32 | Texas Tech to win / Kansas State against the spread |
| Kansas State | 6.5 | 25 | (under 1 pt difference) |
Posted at 06:53 PM Read More
