And Stupidity Shall Be Rewarded



Warren Buffet can't promise you returns like this.
I made predictions on 47 games last week: 2 of them were too close to the spread for me to make a call and 1 wound up in a push (Central Florida was favored by 14 over SMU and won 31-17). That left 44 games to measure, and my method (VHR) went 29-15, or 65.9%. For those who don't gamble, break even against the spread is 52.3% (or 11/21). 29-15 is a +28% return (if you bet $1000 total on my picks, you'd have $1280 back).

I don't expect to go 29-15 every week.

The best picks of the week:
Predicted: Texas 38 - Colorado 13
Actual: Texas 38 - Colorado 14

Predicted: Oklahoma 50 - Baylor 17
Actual: Oklahoma 49 - Baylor 17

There were some bad ones in there, but I'd rather focus on the good ones.

Before I get to the coming week, one housekeeping note. Last week I linked USA Today's spreads and used a column labeled "Opening". Someone who actually does bet tells me that's not appropriate, because it's hard to actual place a wager against the opening line. So this week, I'll placate that concern, I hope, by using the line marked Logans. I have no idea who the Logans are, but their spread is in effect for Week 7.

So on to Week 7 predictions.
And you'll note one very amusing one: Texas 23 - Oklahoma 23, and it declares Oklahoma the winner. That's because it's actually Texas 22.8 - Oklahoma 23.1.

Remember, these do not factor in HFA, not in the data that is used to calculate the score nor as an adjustment at the end.  Picks with the greatest difference between my score and the spread are at the top, and the closest are at the bottom, including a surprising 6 games where my pick is <1 pt from the spread. 

TeamSpreadScorePrediction
Tulsa66Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread
Southern Methodist2520
Minnesota12.532Minnesota to win / Minnesota against the spread
Illinois28
Arizona40Arizona to win / Arizona against the spread
Stanford6.517
Ball State43Ball State to win / Ball State against the spread
Western Kentucky15.513
Louisiana-Lafayette52Louisiana-Lafayette to win / Louisiana-Lafayette against the spread
North Texas21.516
Boise State38Boise State to win / Boise State against the spread
Southern Mississippi1114
Kansas State40Kansas State to win / Kansas State against the spread
Texas A&M325
Toledo1625Michigan to win / Toledo against the spread
Michigan29
Temple7.521Temple to win / Temple against the spread
Central Michigan17
Miami (Ohio)1113Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread
Northern Illinois35
Syracuse2416West Virginia to win / Syracuse against the spread
West Virginia29
Nebraska20.526Texas Tech to win / Nebraska against the spread
Texas Tech36
Vanderbilt24Vanderbilt to win / Vanderbilt against the spread
Mississippi State2.511
Texas Christian36Texas Christian to win / Texas Christian against the spread
Colorado State1511
Purdue18.516Ohio State to win / Purdue against the spread
Ohio State25
Penn State30Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread
Wisconsin614
Iowa State4.535Iowa State to win / Iowa State against the spread
Baylor31
South Carolina9Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread
Kentucky117
Western Michigan132Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread
Buffalo24
Tulane4.524Texas-El Paso to win / Texas-El Paso against the spread
Texas-El Paso36
Louisiana-Monroe1315Arkansas State to win / Arkansas State against the spread
Arkansas State35
Rutgers7.515Cincinnati to win / Cincinnati against the spread
Cincinnati30
Middle Tennessee State219Middle Tennessee State to win / Middle Tennessee State against the spread
Florida International14
Texas723Oklahoma to win / Texas against the spread
Oklahoma23
Alabama-Birmingham1825Houston to win / Houston against the spread
Houston50
East Carolina28East Carolina to win / East Carolina against the spread
Virginia615
Arizona State2810Southern California to win / Arizona State against the spread
Southern California32
Utah38Utah to win / Utah against the spread
Wyoming239
Oklahoma State1436Missouri to win / Oklahoma State against the spread
Missouri44
Utah State1417San Jose State to win / Utah State against the spread
San Jose State25
Louisiana Tech7.5420Hawaii to win / Louisiana Tech against the spread
Hawaii22
UCLA1820Oregon to win / Oregon against the spread
Oregon43
Air Force31Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread
San Diego State10.516
New Mexico23.513Brigham Young to win / New Mexico against the spread
Brigham Young31
Louisville27Louisville to win / Memphis against the spread
Memphis6.525
Louisiana State617Florida to win / Florida against the spread
Florida27
Iowa23Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread
Indiana614
Washington State3014Oregon State to win / Oregon State against the spread
Oregon State47
New Mexico State1925Nevada to win / New Mexico State against the spread
Nevada40
Idaho3420Fresno State to win / Idaho against the spread
Fresno State51
Central Florida1716Miami (Florida) to win / Miami (Florida) against the spread
Miami (Florida)36
Tennessee1215Georgia to win / Tennessee against the spread
Georgia24
Eastern Michigan020Army to win / Army against the spread
Army22
Bowling Green State24Akron to win / Akron against the spread
Akron026
Ohio26Ohio to win / Ohio against the spread
Kent125Prediction too close to spread
Colorado1419Kansas to win / Colorado against the spread
Kansas32Prediction too close to spread
Clemson1.517Wake Forest to win / Wake Forest against the spread
Wake Forest19Prediction too close to spread
Michigan State18Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread
Northwestern1.516Prediction too close to spread
Notre Dame7.519North Carolina to win / Notre Dame against the spread
North Carolina26Prediction too close to spread
Arkansas18.58Auburn to win / Auburn against the spread
Auburn27Prediction too close to spread

Posted: Thursday - October 09, 2008 at 06:54 PM