Thursday - October 09, 2008
And Stupidity Shall Be Rewarded
I made predictions on 47 games last week: 2 of them were too close to the spread for me to make a call and 1 wound up in a push (Central Florida was favored by 14 over SMU and won 31-17). That left 44 games to measure, and my method (VHR) went 29-15, or 65.9%. For those who don't gamble, break even against the spread is 52.3% (or 11/21). 29-15 is a +28% return (if you bet $1000 total on my picks, you'd have $1280 back).
I don't expect to go 29-15 every week.
The best picks of the week:
Predicted: Texas 38 - Colorado 13
Actual: Texas 38 - Colorado 14
Predicted: Oklahoma 50 - Baylor 17
Actual: Oklahoma 49 - Baylor 17
There were some bad ones in there, but I'd rather focus on the good ones.
Before I get to the coming week, one housekeeping note. Last week I linked USA Today's spreads and used a column labeled "Opening". Someone who actually does bet tells me that's not appropriate, because it's hard to actual place a wager against the opening line. So this week, I'll placate that concern, I hope, by using the line marked Logans. I have no idea who the Logans are, but their spread is in effect for Week 7.
So on to Week 7 predictions.
And you'll note one very amusing one: Texas 23 - Oklahoma 23, and it declares Oklahoma the winner. That's because it's actually Texas 22.8 - Oklahoma 23.1.
Remember, these do not factor in HFA, not in the data that is used to calculate the score nor as an adjustment at the end. Picks with the greatest difference between my score and the spread are at the top, and the closest are at the bottom, including a surprising 6 games where my pick is <1 pt from the spread.
| Team | Spread | Score | Prediction |
| Tulsa | 66 | Tulsa to win / Tulsa against the spread | |
| Southern Methodist | 25 | 20 | |
| Minnesota | 12.5 | 32 | Minnesota to win / Minnesota against the spread |
| Illinois | 28 | ||
| Arizona | 40 | Arizona to win / Arizona against the spread | |
| Stanford | 6.5 | 17 | |
| Ball State | 43 | Ball State to win / Ball State against the spread | |
| Western Kentucky | 15.5 | 13 | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 52 | Louisiana-Lafayette to win / Louisiana-Lafayette against the spread | |
| North Texas | 21.5 | 16 | |
| Boise State | 38 | Boise State to win / Boise State against the spread | |
| Southern Mississippi | 11 | 14 | |
| Kansas State | 40 | Kansas State to win / Kansas State against the spread | |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 25 | |
| Toledo | 16 | 25 | Michigan to win / Toledo against the spread |
| Michigan | 29 | ||
| Temple | 7.5 | 21 | Temple to win / Temple against the spread |
| Central Michigan | 17 | ||
| Miami (Ohio) | 11 | 13 | Northern Illinois to win / Northern Illinois against the spread |
| Northern Illinois | 35 | ||
| Syracuse | 24 | 16 | West Virginia to win / Syracuse against the spread |
| West Virginia | 29 | ||
| Nebraska | 20.5 | 26 | Texas Tech to win / Nebraska against the spread |
| Texas Tech | 36 | ||
| Vanderbilt | 24 | Vanderbilt to win / Vanderbilt against the spread | |
| Mississippi State | 2.5 | 11 | |
| Texas Christian | 36 | Texas Christian to win / Texas Christian against the spread | |
| Colorado State | 15 | 11 | |
| Purdue | 18.5 | 16 | Ohio State to win / Purdue against the spread |
| Ohio State | 25 | ||
| Penn State | 30 | Penn State to win / Penn State against the spread | |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 14 | |
| Iowa State | 4.5 | 35 | Iowa State to win / Iowa State against the spread |
| Baylor | 31 | ||
| South Carolina | 9 | Kentucky to win / Kentucky against the spread | |
| Kentucky | 1 | 17 | |
| Western Michigan | 1 | 32 | Western Michigan to win / Western Michigan against the spread |
| Buffalo | 24 | ||
| Tulane | 4.5 | 24 | Texas-El Paso to win / Texas-El Paso against the spread |
| Texas-El Paso | 36 | ||
| Louisiana-Monroe | 13 | 15 | Arkansas State to win / Arkansas State against the spread |
| Arkansas State | 35 | ||
| Rutgers | 7.5 | 15 | Cincinnati to win / Cincinnati against the spread |
| Cincinnati | 30 | ||
| Middle Tennessee State | 2 | 19 | Middle Tennessee State to win / Middle Tennessee State against the spread |
| Florida International | 14 | ||
| Texas | 7 | 23 | Oklahoma to win / Texas against the spread |
| Oklahoma | 23 | ||
| Alabama-Birmingham | 18 | 25 | Houston to win / Houston against the spread |
| Houston | 50 | ||
| East Carolina | 28 | East Carolina to win / East Carolina against the spread | |
| Virginia | 6 | 15 | |
| Arizona State | 28 | 10 | Southern California to win / Arizona State against the spread |
| Southern California | 32 | ||
| Utah | 38 | Utah to win / Utah against the spread | |
| Wyoming | 23 | 9 | |
| Oklahoma State | 14 | 36 | Missouri to win / Oklahoma State against the spread |
| Missouri | 44 | ||
| Utah State | 14 | 17 | San Jose State to win / Utah State against the spread |
| San Jose State | 25 | ||
| Louisiana Tech | 7.54 | 20 | Hawaii to win / Louisiana Tech against the spread |
| Hawaii | 22 | ||
| UCLA | 18 | 20 | Oregon to win / Oregon against the spread |
| Oregon | 43 | ||
| Air Force | 31 | Air Force to win / Air Force against the spread | |
| San Diego State | 10.5 | 16 | |
| New Mexico | 23.5 | 13 | Brigham Young to win / New Mexico against the spread |
| Brigham Young | 31 | ||
| Louisville | 27 | Louisville to win / Memphis against the spread | |
| Memphis | 6.5 | 25 | |
| Louisiana State | 6 | 17 | Florida to win / Florida against the spread |
| Florida | 27 | ||
| Iowa | 23 | Iowa to win / Iowa against the spread | |
| Indiana | 6 | 14 | |
| Washington State | 30 | 14 | Oregon State to win / Oregon State against the spread |
| Oregon State | 47 | ||
| New Mexico State | 19 | 25 | Nevada to win / New Mexico State against the spread |
| Nevada | 40 | ||
| Idaho | 34 | 20 | Fresno State to win / Idaho against the spread |
| Fresno State | 51 | ||
| Central Florida | 17 | 16 | Miami (Florida) to win / Miami (Florida) against the spread |
| Miami (Florida) | 36 | ||
| Tennessee | 12 | 15 | Georgia to win / Tennessee against the spread |
| Georgia | 24 | ||
| Eastern Michigan | 0 | 20 | Army to win / Army against the spread |
| Army | 22 | ||
| Bowling Green State | 24 | Akron to win / Akron against the spread | |
| Akron | 0 | 26 | |
| Ohio | 26 | Ohio to win / Ohio against the spread | |
| Kent | 1 | 25 | Prediction too close to spread |
| Colorado | 14 | 19 | Kansas to win / Colorado against the spread |
| Kansas | 32 | Prediction too close to spread | |
| Clemson | 1.5 | 17 | Wake Forest to win / Wake Forest against the spread |
| Wake Forest | 19 | Prediction too close to spread | |
| Michigan State | 18 | Michigan State to win / Michigan State against the spread | |
| Northwestern | 1.5 | 16 | Prediction too close to spread |
| Notre Dame | 7.5 | 19 | North Carolina to win / Notre Dame against the spread |
| North Carolina | 26 | Prediction too close to spread | |
| Arkansas | 18.5 | 8 | Auburn to win / Auburn against the spread |
| Auburn | 27 | Prediction too close to spread |