Tuesday - September 18, 2007
There's No Freude Like Schadenfreude
Pure, Unadulterated Schadenfreude
Normally, I try to stay analytical here.
I don't vent my homerism on the blog; I save that for phone conversations with friends and other places where my wild predictions won't be remembered and where my unkind words about foreign programs won't be held against me when I'm trying to make a more rational point. I don't jab at other programs (though I do take a jab or two at fan bases I think are acting up).
But 38-0 is just too much, especially when it comes with so much beautiful, wonderful baggage. I have to do this. Call this the Charlie Weis Fact Sheet, a reaction to the much distributed Tyrone Willingham Fact Sheet that laid out the reasons why so many ND fans wanted Ty Willingham gone (and which basically read as an exercise in seeing how many ways one could restate the fact "we get blown out a lot").
The Charlie Weis Fact Sheet
Trends and Fun Facts
Notre Dame is currently on a 5 game losing streak, their first since late 1985, early 1986.
Notre Dame has given up at least 30 points in each of those games. That's the first time that's happened since ... well, ever.
Notre Dame has scored 51 points over that 5 game stretch. That's the worst 5-game output since the tail end of the 1980 season ... but at least they won two of those games in 1980. Of course, the defense was a bit better then. Notre Dame has given up 187 points during this current 5 game stretch (a Notre Dame record) and has been outscored by 136 points (a Notre Dame record). They've been beaten by 20+ points every week of that stretch (a Notre Dame record). It would be tempting to say "at least they are losing to good teams," but Michigan was coming off a loss to 1-AA Appalachian State and a 32 point home loss to Oregon.
This is possibly the worst 5 game stretch in Notre Dame football history.
If you just focus on this year, the 13 points in 3 games is the worst since they scored 13 in 3 games in October 1960, the 100+ surrendered in 3 weeks is becoming an annual phenomenon (as they get waxed each bowl season and then give up bundles of points to start the following season) and the -89 pt differential is the worst since late 1956.
The 0-3 start is the 2nd such start in ND history. The first (2001) was partly responsible for the departure of Bob Davie.
The 38-0 loss to Michigan ties the record for the most lopsided game in series history (tied, of course, with Michigan's 38-0 victory in 2003). The 3rd most lopsided loss in series history was last year's 47-21 Michigan win, giving Charlie Weis 2 of the top 3!
The 30 pt loss to Georgia Tech was the most lopsided loss in that series's history.
Under Willingham, ND lost hold of the #1 ranking in winning %age (but let's be clear; that's only partly on Willingham ... Michigan had been chipping away at Notre Dame's lead for decades). Under Weis, they are coming dangerously close to losing #2 in the all-time wins total to Texas. A true collapse could put #4 (behind Texas and Nebraska) in the realm of possibility, and could drop ND from 5th to as low as 8th in winning %age in the AP era (1936->present).
Trivia question: how old do you have to be to (truthfully) say that Notre Dame has a better record in your lifetime than Michigan does?
Answer: 87 years old. If you're younger than that, Michigan has a better record in your lifetime.
Statistics
Out of 119 teams (from the NCAA website)
Notre Dame ranks 119th in rushing offense, 115th in passing offense, 113th in passing efficiency, 119th in total offense and 119th in scoring offense. 83 teams average more yards per game than ND has amassed in 3 games combined. 113 teams average more points per game than ND has scored in 3 games combined. If ND puts up 850 yards of offense on Michigan State, that still would not put them in the top 100 nationally in total offense (barring other teams dropping, of course).
Notre Dame's defense is considerably better. They rank 111th in rushing defense, 5th in passing defense, 42nd in pass efficiency defense, 52nd in total defense and 99th in scoring defense.
Talent
It's been suggested that the team is getting drubbed because Willingham left the cupboard bare for Charlie Weis. This is particularly true of the offensive line, where Willingham hardly recruited any linemen at all. At RB and WR, one can work in young players, but it's hard to do it at OL.
The ND starting offensive line has 3 upperclassmen and 2 sophomores, and were 4* players, on average, coming out of HS (per Rivals.com). ND is last in the nation in rushing and has given up 23 sacks in 3 games.
The Michigan starting offensive line has 3 upperclassmen and 2 sophomores, and were 4.2* players, on average, coming out of HS. Mike Hart has run for 500 yards in 3 games behind that line, and the QBs have been sacked 5 times in 3 games.
The Georgia Tech offensive line is all upperclassmen, but consists of 5 players rated 2* coming out of HS. Georgia Tech is 14th nationally in rushing (including >250 yards against ND) and has given up 2 sacks in 3 games.
The Appalachian State offensive line does not have a single starter who was even rated by Rivals coming out of HS, and they ran for 160 yards on Michigan and rung up 34 points.
Depth is an issue, of course. ND has so few upperclassmen that I believe literally every veteran OL on roster is starting. Still, even with the terrible recruiting Willingham did, it's a hard sell convincing me that Notre Dame has less talent on the offensive line than Appalachian State. Somehow, Appalachian State's offensive is demonstrably better.
Can Charlie Weis develop talent? I've seen a stat quoted (I haven't verified it) that all but 2 touchdowns of the Charlie Weis era have been scored by players recruited by Davie or Willingham. It's somewhat understandable, given the wealth of talent Willingham left him on offense (Quinn, Samardzija, McKnight, Stovall, Carlson, Fasano, Walker), but it doesn't offer us any evidence that Weis is developing talent. He has done a good job of getting production out of very talented, veteran players on the offensive side of the ball. He hasn't shown us anything on defense, he hasn't cobbled production from less talented units and he hasn't gotten production out of freshman and sophomores yet.
And it can be done. In 2004, Michigan had a true freshman QB and a true freshman RB playing behind a line where 3 of the (due to injury/shuffling) 6 regular starters had never started a game before. Michigan won 9 games, averaged over 30 PPG and was held under 20 only once (16, in a win @ Purdue).
There's more to this than just a lack of veteran talent.