Monday - September 10, 2007
We've All Been Waiting
0-2 and 0-2 notwithstanding, the upcoming Notre Dame - Michigan game is fascinating to me. It's gripping. It's a kind of drama you rarely get to see in sports these days. It's like a subway series, Game 7, 9th inning and Alex Rodriguez is pitching to Pedro Martinez. Nerves will be so taut several thousand die hard fans may stay home rather than risk their health by showing up.
As for the game itself ...
Charlie Weis, who famously invented the concept of self-scouting during a brainstorming session 18 months ago, must be caught in a dilemna this week. Should Notre Dame design its offense to do what they do well (nothing) or to attack what Michigan does poorly (everything)? And should they anticipate Michigan making adjustments in its game plan tailored to stopping Notre Dame's vaunted horizontal passing attack?
It would be tempting for Notre Dame to play "dual threat QB" (a QB who is equally likely to hurt the offense as to hurt the defense) Demetrius Jones against Michigan because it's unlikely that his apparent inability to hit a WR more than 2 yards downfield would actually be factored into Michigan's defensive game plan (which seems to have been designed on a circa 1982 vibrating electronic football gameboard).
Speaking of which, I expect Ron English will call plays designed specifically to generate single teams on Alan Branch and Lamarr Woodley so that they can disrupt the opposing passing game, then scratch his head and wonder why they aren't working.
Also keep your eye out for Michigan's innovative, playground inspired "he can't throw it that far" defense, in which we refuse to cover WRs who run more than 30 yards downfield because, come on, no one can throw the ball that far (except Ryan Mallett, of course)! Plus, if the other team scores that quickly we will probably win the time of possession battle, tire out their defense and late in the 4th quarter, with their line weakening, cut the lead to under 20.
When Michigan has the ball, look for us to run Hart on nearly every play, and when Hart gets tired and need a breather, to take a knee. Of course, you can't run every play. For example, 3rd and 2 would be a good time to try to surprise Notre Dame by taking a sack or throwing a ball out the back of the endzone, when they would surely be expecting Hart to run the ball and pick up the first down. 4th and 2 would be a good time to miss a field goal, have a field goal blocked or throw another pass out the back of the endzone. If we are outside of field goal range and don't want to go for it, a punt out the back of the endzone serves just as well.
At some point, do expect Michigan to attempt to loosen up the Notre Dame defense by having Ryan Mallett attempt to reproduce his long-ball contest winning 83 yard bomb. Hopefully they'll wait until we're backed up to call this play, rather than calling it at the Notre Dame 20, but we will see.
Predictions ...
Mike Hart will have 53 carries for 259 yards and 3 TDs. Ryan Mallett will be 6/20 for 85 yards, 0 TD and 1 Int. Jimmy Clausen will be 28/35 for 85 yards and will be sacked 11 times, 3 of those by the Michigan defense. At some point, someone on the Michigan side will drop the ball in front of Tom Zbikowski, who will run 70 yards the other way, untouched, for a Notre Dame touchdown, but it won't be enough.
Michigan 23 - Notre Dame 14