I know there's a rumor that Charlie Weis was an NFL offensive coordinator at one point, but the more he talks, the more convinced I am that he's actually a message board poster with a fake resume. A bad message board poster.
Check out this link (thanks dayoop and danb for bringing this to a wider audience):
Listen to Weis's comments about 1 minute in.
"We'll listen to Michigan have all their excuses."
You don't need an excuses for 47-21 or 38-0. You may need excuses for 21-47 or 0-38. You know, really bad excuses like "I could get hoodlums and thugs and win tomorrow. I won't do it that way." That would be excuse making. Going 3-9 in your THIRD YEAR and blaming the talent that the previous coach left behind would be excuse making. Going out there and drubbing your rival 38-0 with a true freshman making his first start in place of an injured starter ... that's not excuse making.
Bryce McNeal Secretely Goes Public And Voices A Silent Verbal
A couple of Michigan blogs (mgoblog and Varsity Blues) reported yesterday that Bryce McNeal (4* WR, MN) had committed to Michigan. This was based on e-mails detailing myspace messages between McNeal and (say it with me, ewwww) Michigan fans who had sent him messages over myspace, in which McNeal told these newfound friends that he had done exactly that.
(Requisited ed. note: it's generally interpreted as a potential NCAA violation for fans to message recruits on myspace, facebook, etc. Fans are not expected to know the entire NCAA rulebook, but are advised to not engage in any recruiting themselves)
This news of a commitment was disputed by the "pay sites" (Scout and Rivals), and was generally categorized by most as "untrue", "premature" or "unofficial". Those three words mean three very different things, and I suspect the middle one is the most accurate. There's a variety of statuses (stati?) recruits fall into. There's commit (said so publicly), soft commit (said so publicly but seem to be wavering or at least listening to other schools), silent commit (told the coaches but isn't ready to go public) and "lean" (they have a favorite, but aren't ready to end the process). Even thought a commitment is not binding, there's some feeling that it is official, that a public announcement carries some weight. And the pay sites and mainstream media have a monopoly on the official announcements because the proprieters of mgoblog, Varsity Blues and iBlog for Cookies are not authorized to call recruits and get the news directly (see ed. note above); we are only able to get the news from the mainstream media.
That, unfortunately for us, means we can never break an official commitment, unless we scoop a mainstream media source (say, a TV show was taped and will air tonight and a friend at the station called to give me the info). But in general, as sad as it may be, we cannot break the story.
One thing we can do is predict commitments, by reading (hopefully free) tea leaves and interpreting and scouring the web for whatever free sources we can find.
One ther thing we can do (if we have good information) is report silent commitments. Maybe a source inside Schembechler Hall gets all giddy and tells a friend that Joe FiveStar called Rodriguez and committed yesterday. Now the word has started to pass around the e-mail circuit. You can get into the whole "The kid has a reason for keeping it quiet; if you report the silent commitment you jeopardize it" vs. "It's news, and I report news. As a journalist, I can't promise not to hurt Michigan's recruiting" debate. Have at it, but preferrably some other day.
The bottom line here is this; we have two sites each reporting that multiple people told them that McNeal has decided on Michigan. It could be that they are wrong, that it's an elaborate scheme to trick Michigan bloggers or that they independently made up the same story. All those explanations seem somewhat unlikely. What's far more likely is that McNeal likes Michigan a lot, reached some kind of tipping point and got chatty about it, and that these two blogs ran with a factually correct story that simply did not use the normal catchwords of the recruitnik. If those are the facts, McNeal is either a Michigan "lean" or (if he told the coaches what he told the friends) a "silent commitment".
Maybe McNeal has told people he's coming to Michigan, but he hasn't yet told the people he needs to tell in order for the recruitniks and recruiting sites to call it a "commitment". That's my take.
The Rock Report Tries to Savage Michgan and Savages Notre Dame by Accident
NDNation's "The Rock Report" let loose with one of its typically uninformed and sanctimonious loads of horse manure yesterday, attempting to laud Notre Dame for its tremendous academic standards.
A few points need to be straightened out.
a) Referred to in the piece is a quote from Charlie Weis earlier this week in which he says "I could get hoodlums and thugs and win tomorrow. I won't do it that way." Not only is it insulting, it's bizarrely arrogant, untrue and silly. First off, Notre Dame's recruiting has been spectacular under Weis. There's little improvement he could possibly make by changing the players he goes after. Arguably, only USC has had a better run of 3 recruiting classes, so for Weis to imply that the struggles are due to turning away talent is nothing more than an attempt to deflect attention from where the blame really lies. Maybe, as Ramzy Nasrallah suggested (on an unarchived message board), maybe he needs to load up on those Air Force and Navy thugs and hoodlums who beat Notre Dame last year. Basically, Notre Dame went 3-9 last year not because their pristine roster lacked the talent that it needed, but because Charlie Weis and his staff did a horrible job preparing the team to play.
b) The Rock discredits the new NCAA grad rate formula as rewarding "teams who use and discard student athletes" because it no longer counts transfers as failures in the grad rates. It's an idiotic accusation. The NCAA's revised formula (GSR) removes from the sample students who were in good academic standing and left the university for "allowable" reasons ... flunking out, being cut, legal problems, etc are not among them. No one with an eye on reasonability would suggest that the new formula is worse than the old. One wonders whether The Rock believes that Notre Dame "used and discarded" Zach Fraser and Demetrius Jones.
c) The Rock crows about ND's graduation rate. The Rock apparently doesn't understand the concept of a diploma mill. Notre Dame is a diploma mill, and that is not a good thing. That is not something to be proud of. When kids who have SAT scores and GPAs so far below the class mean that a non-athletic admissions office would scoff at their application still manage to graduate 95% of the time, Occam is screaming at you that the school is simply handing out diplomas. That is an abrogation of academic integrity. If you can pull a random kid and drop him into the most difficult program on campus and all but guarantee me that he will graduate in four years, you are saying more about the lax standards you employ when dispensing diplomas than you are about your entrance criteria.
Harvard, Yale, etc have high grad rates because in order to get in you have to be extremely gifted in the classroom. You'll never get into those schools with a 3.1 HS GPA and an 1130 on your SAT (no offense to those carrying those credentials, but you're not Harvard material). When you're looking at a student body of 3.9s and 1540s, a 95% grad rate is at least defensible. When you're looking at football players with 3.1s and 1130s competing against kids with 3.8s and 1400s, it's embarrassing.
a) The recruiting services do not hate your school, they are not biased against your school and they do not automatically drop kids in the rankings as soon as they commit to your school. Kids move up and down and rankings are volatile. When a commited kid moves up, that school's fan say "finally; he was way underrated before." When he moves down, they say "Ridiculous; the gurus are punishing him for picking (my school)."
Try this on: maybe the gurus aren't biased; maybe you are.
b) Not every 3* kid who commits to your school is a "sleeper". Sometimes, he's just a 3*. If he ran a 4.42 with a 38" vertical, and you find yourself saying "The scouts are insane to have a kid with his athleticism ranked as a 3*," stop and remind yourself that the recruiting services already know about his 4.42 and 38" vertical. Maybe he got as high as 3* because of his pure athletic ability. Maybe other than those two things he doesn't have much to sell you on at all.
c) In 90% of cases, until a kid has played college football and established what he is capable of, the recruiting rankings and scouting analysis is all you've got (unless you're a scout yourself and have access to game film: raise your hand if that's the case). If you trust the services, then a 5* is a 5* and a 3* is a 3*. Sure quibble a bit because you've got your biases in terms of style or fit, but that's on the margins. If you don't trust the services, then don't get excited when your school lands a blue chip prospect. What's silly is when a fan base lands the 30th best recruiting class in the country, by the numbers, and the fans say "The recruiting rankings are junk; I wouldn't trade this class for anyone's except maybe USC's."
d) The other teams are not scared of you and the other coaches are not scared of you. Your rival didn't just offer that 5* corner because he saw the WRs you are bringing in. He didn't panic, thinking "Oh my god, we need more corners!" And your conference opponents are not panicking at their inevitable failure to block all your blue chip d-linemen. You just got a couple of blue chip corners in this class? Great. Don't trot out the tired "No one's going to be able to throw on us in 2 years" nonsense, because your cross-state rivals just happened to land 2 blue chip WRs and is thinking "No one's going to be able to stop our passing attack." All across the country there are blue chip WRs being covered by blue chip corners, and sometimes these guys win and sometimes those guys win.
e) Not every kid who takes a depth chart into consideration is "afraid of competition." Some of them are just being practical. It's one of the most prevalent double standards in recruiting; a kid that turns down your school because you are deep is afraid of competition, and a kid who turns down your school despite a glaring need is crazy if he thinks he is going to crack the depth chart at the school he did pick.
f) If you had an All-American linebacker who came in at 6'3" 220 with a 4.55 40, and you just recruited a linebacker who's coming in at 6'3" 220 with a 4.55 40 ... you can see where this is headed, right? It doesn't mean anything.
g) "I want kids who want to play for (my school)" is a nice sentiment, but it's comfort food for the recruitnik. It basically means every kid who turns you down is a kid you didn't want, and every kid you landed is the kid you did want. End result: you got exactly the class you wanted. Yay!
h) on (g), see also "Trust the coaches." I trust the coaches. I love the coaches. If the coaches offered 3 QBs and they all turned you down and he went and found a "sleeper", do not insist that he is a great prospect just because you "trust the coaches". The coaches had him as Plan D. If the coaches go out in April and offer a lower rated kid *before* they offer some of the blue chip prospects, yes, trust the coaches. They must have had a reason for making the offer. But parcel your trust our carefully. It's not a universal defense for poor recruiting.
i) Do not offer up proof by anecdote; it makes you look simple. Yes, Braylon Edwards was a 3* WR. Guess what ... he's one in a hundred. Adrian Arrington, Mario Manningham, David Terrell, Marquise Walker, Steve Breaston and Jason Avant were 4*s and 5*s. I'll take my chances on the blue chip prospects instead of betting that every 3* is going to turn out to be Braylon Edwards.
j) The kid you just recruited is not "a faster Mike Hart", "a more athletic Chris Spielman" or "Vince Young, except with better mechanics." A faster Mike Hart would be ... well, Barry Sanders. IOW, one of the best backs you've ever seen at any level. A more athletic Chris Spielman would have been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a college sophomore. Aim lower.
A couple of years ago, Notre Dame landed two fairly highly regarded QB recruits in 4* prospects Zach Fraser and Demetrius Jones. When 5* QB Mitch Mustain decommitted from Arkansas and was looking around, the presence of Jones and Frazer in ND played a big part in his reconfirming with Arkansas.
Shortly after that, we started hearing in Michigan that Mustain's commitment to Arkansas put us in good stead with Ryan Mallett. Mallett eventually whittled his choices down to Michigan and Texas, where Mack Brown put on the hard sell. Brown was on the verge of filling his 2 person QB class with John Chiles and John Brantley.
The hard sell didn't work on Mallett, who all but eliminated Texas at that point and committed to Michigan soon afterward. With Mallett in the fold, Michigan had little need to pursue the top in-state QB that year, Steven Threet, who wound up at Georgia Tech.
And now we're hearing that QB depth charts could be a major factor in the decision of the top dual-threat QB for 2009, Russell Shepard, who is deciding between Texas, Michigan and Florida.
So why did I engage in this little trip down memory lane?
Count 'em off, in order of appearance as they say in the movies: Zach Fraser: transfered from Notre Dame to Connecticut Demetrius Jones: transfered from Notre Dame to Cincinnati Mitch Mustain: transfered from Arkansas to USC Ryan Mallett: transfered from Michigan to Arkansas John Chiles: still at Texas John Brantley: decomitted from Texas and signed with Florida Steven Threet: transfered from Georgia Tech to Michigan.
The moral of the story? If you're a hotshot QB, just go where you want to go and don't worry about the depth charts. Those guys may not even be there two years from now. Three of the five transfers on that list (Mustain, Mallett and Threet) didn't get beaten out by other highly rated QBs; they left for various other reasons.
Martavius Odoms (WR FL) has joined the class, turning down a track scholarship from Miami. Odoms is a speedy, 5'8" WR who makes this maybe the fastest class in recent Michigan history and almost certainly the shortest since the advent of the "Milk - It Does A Body Good" ad campaign. For the record, that makes 3 players listed at 5'9" or below (Odoms, WR Terrance Robinson and CB Boubacar Cissoko).
Why the rash of slot receivers (Odoms and Roundtree) and RBs/athletes that Rodriguez wants to turn into receivers (Robinson and Shaw)? Rodriguez has preached before about the need for numbers at WR, and he particular needs some depth at that "slash", playmaker position that he wants to utilize. Since Carr had few available, it became a major priority for the Feb 2008 recruiting class.
Second note: the top "dual threat" QB prospect for Feb 2009 would appear to be Russell Shepard of Houston Texas, who loves Texas and would love to play QB at Texas, but isn't sure if he'll get a shot at that position (given the verbal commitment given to Texas last week by projected 5* drop back QB Garrett Gilbert).
Well, after visiting Texas this weekend and receiving an offer, albeit at WR and not at QB, Shepard had this to say (thanks to curt of Victors for the link): "I would say Texas is still up there, but Michigan is really at the top of my list, especially if they don’t get Terrelle Pryor.
There is obviously a long way to go, but that's a nice start.
The class is in
t's thick through the middle, filled with lots of well regarded but not top 100 players ... the "mid to low 4*" players, in recruiting website parlance. So let's dive into how it stacks up.
I've lectured boringly before about my "recruiting efficiency" algorithm. In short, it's an algorithm for taking recruiting ratings (from Rivals, in this case) and team needs (my own assessment) and measuring how well a team did not only in securing talent but in securing the talent it needed.
The idea: 1. To measure how well a program addressed team needs 2. To establish diminishing returns on class size, so that 30 member "oversigned" classes with tons of non-qualifiers don't get overrated every year. 3. To establish diminishing returns on an individual position, because the 3rd RB you bring in doesn't improve the roster as much as the first DT.
The drawbacks: 1. Someone has to assess team needs, and I'm only qualified (barely) to assess Michigan. 2. Team needs change. You may sign 2 QBs this year and think the 2nd is a luxury, but when 2 upperclassmen transfer ... 3. It is hard to quantify the need to add a single elite player at a position. You may have a depth chart full of good #2 corners, but desperately need that #1. It is hard to put a number to that.
But here's the process in short:
Identify class size, split it into 5 categories from highest priority (5) to lowest (1), with some buffer built in (for example, a 25 member class may have 6 in each spot instead of 5), slot the players in with their Rivals rating (in this case, the finer "RR" number, which splits 4*s into high/medium/low, for example) and do the math. The rating shown below is the ("RR rating" - 5.1), with a minimum of 0.1.
Here's the mathematical answer
Position
Importance
Player
Rating
Points
Max
QB
5
Feagin
0.6
3
5
LB
5
Fitzgerald
0.8
4
10
S
5
Smith
0.8
4
15
OT
5
O'Neill
0.9
4.5
20
WR
5
Stonum
0.9
4.5
25
DL
4
Martin
0.7
2.8
29
OL
4
Mealer
0.7
2.8
33
RB
4
Shaw
0.8
3.2
37
TE
4
Koger
0.8
3.2
41
CB
4
Cissoko
0.9
3.6
45
CB
3
Floyd
0.4
1.2
48
QB
3
0
51
LB
3
Witherspoon
0.7
2.1
54
WR
3
Robinson
0.7
2.1
57
DL
3
0
60
OL
2
Wermers
0.5
1
62
LB
2
Hill
0.7
1.4
64
OL
2
Barnum
0.7
1.4
66
RB
2
McGuffie
0.7
1.4
68
TE
2
Moore
0.7
1.4
70
OL
1
Morales
0.1
0.1
71
OL
1
Omameh
0.1
0.1
72
OL
1
Khoury
0.6
0.6
73
RB
1
Cox
0.6
0.6
74
LB
1
Demens
0.7
0.7
75
WR
1
Roundtree
0.7
0.7
76
It adds up to a total of 50.4 points out of a max of 74 (74 = if we'd used 24 scholarships but met all our priorities with all 5* players). That's 68.1%.
To put that in perspective, a class which perfectly addresses needs, and does so entirely with mid 4* players (RR rating of 5.9) would get a rating of 80%. A class that perfectly meets needs, and does so entirely with low 4* players (RR rating of 5.8) would get 70%. All high 3*s would be 60%, etc. The 68.1% indicates we met our needs mostly with mid to high 4*s (start in the low 70s) but missed a few needs (deduct a few points there and drop to the high 60s).
How Did We Get There?
Top Priority (5* needs) QB: Justin Feagin - 5.7 (3*). Adequate, but not a home run. OT: Dann O'Neill - 6.0 (4*). A perfect bookend to Steve Schilling in 2 years, I hope. WR: Daryl Stonum - 6.0 (4*). Another of the prototypical Michigan WRs. Nice. LB: J.B. Fitzgerald - 5.9 (4*). An excellent and much needed pickup. S: Brandon Smith - 5.9 (4*). Another excellent and much needed pickup. Overall ... a very, very good job. Not great, because there were no 5* players at the big need positions (or anywhere) and because we didn't pick up a "can't miss" prospect at QB to fill that most glaring of needs.
High priority (4* needs) RB: Michael Shaw - 5.9 (4*). Listed at RB, but hard to pin down.
TE: Kevin Koger - 5.9 (4*). A good TE well suited to the Rodriguez offense. OL: Elliot Mealer - 5.8 (4*). Guard or Tackle, either way, we need both. DL: Mike Martin - 5.8 (4*). 4-3 Tackle. 1 is enough for this class, but at least 1 was critical. CB: Boubacar Cissoko - 6.0 (4*). With numbers (including a 5* last year), we needed 1 blue chip CB and he is it.
Overall .. excellent. You don't expect to land 5* kids everywhere, so filling *all* of these with 4* kids is fantastic. No holes yet in the recruiting.
Moderate priority (3* needs) QB: (no one). We could really use a 2nd QB, not just because of the changing system but due to depth. WR: Terrance Robinson - 5.8 (4*). A perfect slot fit for Rodriguez, filling a position that didn't really exist in Carr's offense (the dedicated slot WR). DL: (no one). Could have really used a DE in this class, after only Van Bergen (who could be a DT) in last year's. Losing Perry hurt. LB: Marcus Witherspoon - 5.8 (4*). We needed numbers at LB, and filled them. DB: JT Floyd - 5.5 (3*). One of the lowest rated recruits in the class, but as the #2 CB in the class.
Overall ... this is where the problem lies. We didn't get the #2 QB, we didn't get a single DE and we left those needs unfilled. That's what's going to become the biggest need in next year's class. And that's why landing Perry and/or Pryor would have made this class not just a damn good one but one of the best I've seen at Michigan.
Lower priority (2* needs) RB: Sam Mcguffie - 5.8 (4*). It's hard to say Sam McGuffie is a low priority. One of my favorite recruits in this class, on potential. TE: Brandon Moore - 5.8 (4*). Listed TE twice in case Rodriguez moves Webb to WR. OL: Barnum - 5.8 (4*). Always need numbers at OL OL: Kurt Wermers - 5.6 (3*). Always need numbers at OL. LB: Taylor Hill - 5.8 (4*). Had a real depth issue at LB and needed at least 3. Overall ... excellent. To fill the #16 - #20 needs with primarily 4* players is a great job of building quality depth and making sure that even when the inevitable happens and a few players don't pan out, that the depth is there to fill in.
Luxuries (1* needs) RB: Mike Cox - 5.7 (3*).
OL: Patrick Omameh - 5.1 (2*).
OL: Rocko Khoury - 5.7 (3*) LS: George Morales - 5.2 (2*) WR: Roy Roundtree - 5.8 (4*) LB: Kenny Demens - 5.8 (4*) Overall ... It's nice to get 2 4* players and 2 3* players to fill in "luxury" spots in your recruiting class, but it's not what makes or breaks you.
Grand total: As mentioned earlier, 68.1% ... that's pretty damn good, but not outstanding.
It's as high as it is because Rodriguez filled almost all those need positions with 4* players (RB, WR, OL, LB). It's not higher because we didn't get the 2 QBs or the DE and because there were no 5* players in the class.
I realize that to everyone here, that number is meaningless, so here's some comparison. 2004 Michigan (Henne, Dutch, Arrington, Martin ...): 68.4% 2005 Michigan (Slocum, Germany, Grady, Bass ...): 65.3% - because the top talent was not distributed to all positions of need. 2006 Michigan (Graham, Schilling, Brown, Mouton, Boren ...): 69.5%. Outstanding class that had 2 5* recruits at two of the biggest needs. 2007 Michigan (Mallett, Warren ...): 62.7%. The worst class in recent Michigan history, buoyed by two critical 5* gets (although that Mallett get didn't last long, did it?)
And to put that in perspective with another school, admitting that by ability to diagnose another school's needs is in question 2006 Notre Dame (Young, Aldridge, Frazer, Jones ...): 65.9% - because of failures to address DT and LB 2007 Notre Dame (Clausen, Kamara, Romine ...): 67.4% - really hit hard by failure to address DT again. 2008 Notre Dame (Crist, Floyd, Rudolph ...): 76.1%. A truly outstanding class with top 100 players recruited at positions of great need.
That, in the 76% territory, is where the Michigan class would have landed if we had gotten Perry and Pryor. Pryor alone would push us to 72.3%.
That's the mathematical answer.
And here's the subjective answer
QB: We did okay. I doubt we get Pryor, who seems to be a battle between OSU (Pryor's choice) and PSU (his father's choice). In getting Feagin, what we did was push back the need for a QB by a year. There is potential, there is at the very least a player in the system that can run Rodriguez's system, if not to perfection (though, of course, he will get his chance to prove he can do even that). It's almost a draw.
RB: Home run. Sam McGuffie is exactly the back this system needs. He is a threat to go 75 yards on any play, and that is what makes this offense deadly. He is the perfect spread option back. Mike Cox ... I will admit, I know little about Mike Cox.
WR/TE: Another home run. We were stocked with flankers and ends (Mathews, Savoy, Hemingway, Clemons and the possibility of Babb or Rogers moving), and Carr locked up another great prospect (Stonum), so Rodriguez set about to fill the one WR position that his offense calls for and Carr's did not - the shifty slot WR who beats bracket coverage and can't be handled by a LB. It is, almost, somewhere between an RB and a WR. And we got two ... Terrance Robinson and Michael Shaw. Both should work in that position. I do not know much about Roundtree, who emerged very late in the process. Add in two very promising pass-catching TEs, and we couldn't have done better.
OL: This is getting repetitive, but a couple of late moves made this a big class. Tackles and guards and centers and long snappers, blue chippers and late bloomers ... there is variety in this class, and enough high end prospects to make it a promising one.
DL: Perhaps one of the few troubling spots. Mike Martin is a great pickup, the mauling, wrestling defensive tackle Carr locked up fairly early. But the defection of much anticipated Omar Hunter (DT) to Notre Dame and then Florida and the loss of blue chip DE Nick Perry to USC hurt the DL class tremendously, and left us with DE as possibly the second biggest recruiting need for 2009 (behind QB). DT will survive, with the class we brought in last year.
LB: Wow. 4 4*
LBs. No top 100 blue chippers, but 4 very promising LBs, and a couple who can probably go anywhere from Will to Mack. Fans go back and forth on whether Fitzgerald or Witherspoon is the top man in, but it doesn't matter ... between those two and Hill and Demens, the LB corps is the strength of the defensive class. In time, don't be surprised if one of these LBs winds up as a DE, or at least as a situational DE
DB: Only three, but with a decent number of DBs in last year's class the big need was 1 top CB and 1 top S and we got that (in Cissoko and Smith). It was not a home run, but it was adequate to very good.
Summary: Very good. Not perfect, not the best I've ever seen at Michigan, but outstanding considering the situation we were in. Normally, the transition year is a tough one for recruiting, and it's the first full year where the coach gets a "bump". If this is what Rodriguez can do with a tough situation, then watch out for his bump.
Joe Tiller is not happy with the last minute defection of 4* WR Roy Roundtree to Michigan. In fact, he's doing something coaches rarely do - he's spouting off to the press about it (of course, he's only piping up because he's retiring and doesn't care).
"If we had an early signing date, you wouldn't have another outfit with a guy in a wizard hatselling snake oil get a guy at the last minute, but that's what happened."
How many ways could Tiller be wrong in one short soundbite? I count three.
First off, no, this is not why we need an early signing period. In fact, this is exactly why we shouldn't have an early signing period. Roundtree described a Michigan offer as a dream come true. He said he always wanted to play for Michigan. He got the offer, he gets his chance, and that's a happy ending for Roundtree. If he committed to Purdue, changed his mind and then decided to play for Michigan, it's the original commitment to Purdue that was a mistake, not his change of destination. Put Michigan's and Purdue's views aside, what Roundtree wants is to be at Michigan.
An early signing period does not prevent kids from making mistakes, it locks them into their mistakes. Instituting an early signing period to prevent kids from changing their minds is like keeping families together by outlawing divorce. An early signing period benefits schools and coaches, and maybe even obsessive message board posters who (act like they) live and die with these decisions, but it does so at the expense of the recruits.
But I do have a proposal that helps the kids, and it's one I've mentioned before: a non-binding letter of intent.
Allow recruits to sing a non-binding LOI any time from, say, July 1st leading into the senior year. Once they file the letter, their scholarship to that school is secure, and in return for that guarantee, the recruit agrees to have no contact with coaches or recruiters from other schools and not to make any official visits to other campuses. It also has the benefit of preventing other coaches from calling recruits who filed these papers (contacting them would be a violation). But, if a kid were to change his mind, he could simply file paperwork to rescind the NBLOI, at which point it's like he never filed one, and recruiting is back on.
Advantages?
Kids can get the process done with, secure the scholarship and get back to class/football.
Kids receive some protection. No fear of commiting to a school and having the offer pulled at the 11th hour when a better player shows interest.
Kids can get persistent coaches off their backs.
Coaches know where they stand with a recruit. If the NBLOI is in, they know the commitment is (relatively) secure and that they don't have to worry about other coaches poaching. If the NBLOI is not in, they know the kid is still open. If the recruit files an NBLOI and then rescinds it, the school knows the kid is wavering and has to be recruited all over again. There is no "I'm 100% committed, but I'm still taking visits".
Kids know where they stand with a school. If they request an NBLOI and the school hesitates to give them one, then they know they are not priority #1 for the school.
And kids still have the opportunity to change their minds.
Michigan has been stung a number of times, whether it be known cases of players who committed and then decommitted or just kids who (supposedly) told the coaches they were coming and then changed their minds. But in the end, if the kid has decided in February that he doesn't want to be at Michigan then he shouldn't be at Michigan. And if we're the beneficiary, that's great. Either way, the kid should be where he wants to be, and an early signing period is not a step in that direction.
That's point #1 where Joe Tiller is wrong. Or just being selfish and seeing things only from the standpoint of the coach and program.
Point #2 where he is wrong is in implying that Rodriguez is "selling snake oil". FIrst off, I don't think Tiller knows that phrase means. He probably just thnks "Well, it has something to do with being slimy" but doesn't exactly know what. But beyond that, to imply that Rodriguez did something slimy here is absurd
Tiller is angry that Rodriguez violated some unwritten gentlemen's agreement between Big 10 coaches. The coaches have agreed to certain rules on how to approach committed prospects, two in particular:
1. You ask the recruit once, and if he's not interested then you back off - obviously Roundtree was interested. Duh.
2. The recruit has to tell the coach he is committed to that he is looking around. Ya, and what if the offer comes at the last minute? "Coach, I'm about to announce in 3 minutes that I am switching to Michigan." Whee! Pointless. And more importantly, not under Rodriguez's control. What Roundtree did or did not tell Tiller is Roundtree's business.
This isn't new and it isn't something Rodriguez is doing that no one else does. The Big 10 coaches made a wholesale assault on the UM commit list during the transition period and it didn't stop when Rodriguez took over. Boubacar Cissoko committed to Michigan but was still recruited by Illinois and Penn State. John Wienke committed but visited Iowa and switched his verbal. Half of Michigan's recruiting class was contacted by Mark Dantonio and a handful here and there were contacted by Jim Tressell.
Tiller's just being an ass.
And Point #3 where he is wrong is in describing Rich Rodriguez as some guy in a wizard hat. Joe Tiller has clearly never played any role playing games. If there's one midwestern coach who is a guy in a wizard hat selling snake oil, it's Charlie Weis. Let's be clear on who is who, here, or our party is doomed to failure:
Charlie Weis: the wizard with the spells to make chickens blow up at 300 feet, but get into a nasty fight with a balrog or something and he's pretty much useless. He can make the balrog dance the macarena if you want, but come fighting time, he's going to be standing in the back saying "Ya, I don't really fight. I've got a slingshot!"
Rich Rodriguez: the archer who hangs back and picks off enemies from a distance. And when the room is clear, he's the first guy to the treasure chest in the corner, stuffing his pockets full of gold, while telling the rest of the party "Weird, this one's empty, too."
Jim Tressell: the thief / assassin dual class with a backstab multipler of x3. So keep your eye on him, because when he sneaks up on you, you are dead.
Bret Bielema: the meathead barbarian who runs headlong into battle just for the fun of it, and laughs at the pretty, pretty sight of his own blood spurting. "Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!"
And poor, poor, John L. He's clearly the elfin cleric who wants to help, who gets caught up in the battle while trying to heal a wounded friend and ends up getting her head chopped off.
Manningham has gone pro: We knew this would happen the day he signed his LOI. If he was good enough that we'd worry about it, he would be gone. Barring something unpleasant happening between now and draft day, Manningham is a first round talent who will test like a first round talent. He's got speed, he runs superb routes and he has a long track record of making big plays. He's a first rounder.
Arrington has gone pro: His stock may never be as high as it is right now. Yes, he could come back next year and maybe put up Marquise Walker-like "I am the only offense you have" numbers. But that's a gamble, and even then, his stock may never be higher than it is right now. It's got a natural cap (one that is measured in seconds and fractions of seconds) and he is bumping up against it. Late 2nd, maybe 3rd, but he could come back next year and break records at Michigan and still not go any higher than that.
Ryan Mallett has gone Razorback: On one hand, it's a damn shame. He has the makings of a great QB. On the other hand, he made no friends in his time in Ann Arbor and you started to get the impression that he was always one bad moment from transferring. Didn't like that 3rd down playcall? He's got the paperwork ready. At least he did it now instead of using up starter's snaps in practice, scaring off recruits and then doing it at the end of spring.
Noel Devine no longer exists: at least, that's what I gather from this report, which cites unnamed West Virginia sources as basically accusing Rich Rodriguez of deleting everything associated with the football program at West Virginia? Noel Devine? Anonymous athletic department staffers witnessed Rich Rodriguez and Peter Stormare shoving him into a shredding machine last Monday afternoon.
Academic records? Scholarship payments? All gone, because apparently West Virginia does not believe in fancy schmancy computer technologies and all relevant records are kept on paper in the head football coach's office.
What, what's that you say? Maybe that report wasn't quite accurate? Maybe there's a good, non-criminal explanation for some document shredding and West Virginia was just acting like the bitchy half of an ugly divorce proceeding, hurling accusations in the hopes that Rodriguez will give up custody and the family home in exchange for some peace and quiet? Okay, I buy that.
Terrell Pryor? We have a shot. We have an even shot. If he goes to OSU, it'll suck, but so be it. If he goes to Oregon, I will make unsupported allegations about their recruiting tactics. Some things defy explanation.
Not a lot of love for Michigan recruits in either. Boubacar Cissoko and Daryl Stonum make both top 100 lists. O'Neill rises to top 50 in the Rivals list. Brandon Smith and Boubacar Cissoko make top 100 per Scout (but McGuffie is noticably absent on the Rivals 250 list, let alone 100, despite a very impressive showing during Army All-American festivities).
Remaining targets: Terrell Pryor is #1 in both lists and Nick Perry is mid 50s.
It's nice having a coach who has an offense that's actually worth diagramming on the white board. So take a look (it's about 10 minutes long - thanks Victors' Cap for the link).
A few quick thoughts:
Some folks may think "Damn, he's letting all his secrets out!" Not a big deal. Not only can any coach worth his salt figure much of this out from game film, Rodriguez has been open about running camps and meeting with other coaches to show off his offense. Both Jim Tressell and Charlie Weis have made that pilgramage to Morgantown to learn from Rich Rodriguez (that's a fun fact to remember when the ND fans talk to us about their offensive genius).
I like some of the small tidbits in here. I like that he considers the QB a blocker. Why? Why not. I like that he is willing to discount a safety in the box because he just doesn't think that's going to stop his RB.
Keep in mind, he is talking primarily about the run part of the game here, so even when he's talking WR alignments and coverages, he's looking at how they affect the run game. One can only imagine what he has in mind for a WR corps that should be better than any he worked with at WVU.
But in all, the video only lays out what we already know; this offense more than anything stresses two things - the ability to read the defense and find the open area, and the speed to attack the weak spots before the defense can recover. Nothing revolutionary, but interesting.
Thoughts on Manningham, Arrington and Mallett will be coming soon.
Apparently, the ratings on ND games were so bad this year that NBC is handing out free ad time to sponsors to compensate them for the fact that no one saw their paid ads. The average rating this year for NBC-ND game? An embarrassing 1.8.
Yes, the decline from 2005's 3.6 is significant, but even in 2006, when ND matched their 2005 record, the ratings were down to 2.9, a 20% decline from 2005. Perhaps the 3.6 is the artificially inflated, first year bump?
That per Angelique Chengelis of the Detroit Free Press. Which ones? All of them. Every one of them. Shocking. Almost everyone assumed 2 or 3 assistants would be retained, with the most likely being longtime UM assistants WR coach Erik Campbell and RB coach Fred Jackson, and possibly QB coach Scot Loeffler. But it looks like Rich Rodriguez has cleaned out the cupboard.
The first question many message board types will ask is "what does this mean to our recruiting class?" To which the obvious answer is "Who cares?" Okay, we all care to some extent; it would be nice to have Sam McGuffie and Boubacar Cissoko and all come to Ann Arbor next year, but the composition of the coaching staff is much more important in the long run than a single recruiting class.
The bigger question to me is "why?" If this is because Rodriguez has some coaches in mind that he thinks are better than Jackson and Campbell and Loeffler, we have to give him that chance. I personally think that Campbell and Loeffler are among the best in the country (Jackson has never impressed me, as we never have multiple backs ready and our backups are always fumble prone), but Rodriguez is the guy getting millions to make these decisions and he's the guy coming off 32 wins in 3 years.
But, if Rodriguez is firing these guys just out of a desire to start fresh or because he wants to keep the guys from WVU he is familiar with, then that is cause for concern. Only time will tell, of course. And time may bring a couple back (don't be *too* surprised if after firing all 9, Rodriguez sits down with 1 or 2 and brings them back).
All but official now, as Rodriguez has met with his team and told them he is coming, and has apparently started recruiting for Michigan already.
No comment yet - presser later today - but this one is being widely reported and seems more than just credible.
There have been bumps in this road. Les Miles seemed like a no-brainer choice, and somehow it did not happen. And the irony is that the Pitt win over West Virginia complicated our pursuit of Les Miles but made it easier to get Rich Rodriguez. But it's hard to be upset with the way this turned out.
Casting a glance back to my original short list from before Carr announced, we made a play for #3 (Les Miles) and it didn't work, we made a play for #2 (Greg Schiano) and he turned us down and we went after #4 (Rich Rodriguez) and we got him.
That's not to say that all concerns over the search were unfounded; sometimes mistakes can be salvaged, and it's possible that the intervention of Mary Sue Coleman and the rumored involvement of a professional search team gave Martin the assistance he didn't think he needed. Either way, it doesn't matter; we got ourselves a great coach and hopefully we won't be in a position to do this again for a long time.
This is the most important decision you will make in your tenure as the athletic director at Michigan. The stadium construction, the basketball search, even balancing the budget ... none of those compare to the head football coaching search.
And now, with the job open 2 weeks, what are we hearing? Brady Hoke. Mike DeBord. Ron English. An interim coach for a year and try again in 2008.
None of those decisions is acceptable. They are not just uninspiring, they are unacceptable. Any one of them would be seen as an abject failure on the part of the athletic department and the athletic director. Michigan is one of the top programs in the country and the job opening here is a dream opportunity for many, to take over a national powerhouse at a prosperous time, not in the middle of a decline. The right hire could launch Michigan into a truly fantastic era for this program.
And yet we hear that we may be considering Ron English, Mike DeBord and Brady Hoke.
Whatever your fears are with respect to Les Miles, they cannot outweigh the simple reality, the proven reality, that Mike DeBord and Brady Hoke are not good enough to warrant handing over the Michigan program to one of them.
There is no perfect candidate. Every candidate presents some danger, some fear. The fear that Schiano was a flash in the pan. The fear that Tedford can't recruit. The fear that Miles will embarrass the program. The fear that Stoops looks the other way on NCAA compliance. Ditto Tressell. Ditto Carroll. Meyer is a negative recruiter.
There is fear with every coach. There are negatives on every coach, and an element of risk. But with some candidates, there is a reward behind that risk. Les Miles is such a case. He has never been investigated by the NCAA. He has never said anything that would offend the fans or the population. He has never done anything to embarrass his university. Has he done something to offend Lloyd Carr? Assuredly yes, but as much as Carr has contributed to the program, his word cannot outweigh the collective thoughts of dozens of dyed in the wool Michigan faithful, ex players, ex coaches and alumni, who know and respect Les Miles and want to see him in Ann Arbor.
You have a committee of advisors. You have dozens of respected Michigan football alumni who will weigh in. When they say Les Miles is good and Les Miles can be trusted with this program, respect the opportunity that he represents, not the fear.
And faced with the choice of Hoke, DeBord, English and interim or Les Miles, the decision cannot be hard.
With the abrupt and unexpected announcement that Les Miles has extended his contract with LSU, an announcement made at a press conference in which he was widely expected to announce he was leaving LSU for Michigan, the obvious question was "What went wrong."
I went around insisting that it had played out exactly as I had expected (see next blog entry down), except that Miles hadn't waited out LSU's bluff, that when Miles held all the cards and could have told LSU he would negotiate after the season, he buckled in, bought their bluff and announced he had agreed to the extension.
Now word is filtering out that there is a much bigger issue at work here, one that comes as a huge surprise to many of us who thought we were tuned into this search. Bill Martin is just not sold on Les Miles. How he could not be sold, I have no idea. I said months ago, before this job was even open, that Martin had to make the call on Miles' character before anything else, and not even put Miles on the list if he didn't feel comfortable with it. But on the field, there is no question on Miles. He wins consistently. He is in the national title game. There are no questions on Les Miles the football coach.
But Bill Martin isn't sold.
And Les Miles, with a team headed to the title game, and with a 10 year, $35M contract extension from LSU on the table in front of him, has no interest in taking chances on all of that just so that he can be part of a search headed by a guy who may not choose him in the end.
If Bill Martin had called Les Miles today and said "Les, 5 years, $16M," I am confident that Les Miles would have sheepishly walked to a podium next week, wiped the egg from his face and announced he was coming to Michigan. But Martin, who has had since September at the very least to conduct the background on this search, and who can lean on the experiences of literally dozens of people who have coached with or played with Les Miles, still wasn't sure.
And so Michigan's best chance at landing a true home run head coaching candidate has disappeared.
There is no way to spin this except as a tremendous screwup by Bill Martin. This is not the time to start doing background checks. This is the time to be making offers.
It May Be A Reasoned Guess, But Let's Not Pretend It's Educated:
The coaching search is only, officially, 2 days old but Les Miles's name surfaced long before Carr announced him retirement and it's seemed like a foregone conclusion for some time. You will hear the steady drumbeat of Miles from now until this thing is settled.
If LSU loses (to Arkansas or in the SEC Championshp Game) the whole matter is settled. Skip the rest of this post because Miles is our man and no one will care if he leaves LSU before their Fiesta Bowl appearance against Kansas or whomever. But if they keep winning ...
You will hear statements from the LSU side that they are confident Miles is staying and that Miles would never give up a title shot to take another job. They will say, hint or imply that Miles will not be allowed to coach LSU in any potential title game if he is talking to Michigan.
LSU will make it difficult on Miles by putting an offer on the table before the title game that will force him to tip his hand. They will make it clear that if he does not sign the extension they will take that as a sign that he is leaving for Michigan.
From the Michigan side, you will start hearing rumors of other names. The first to surface was Kirk Ferentz. Others will rise. Brian Kelly will be mentioned. Mike Trgovac (he of the January 2006 rumors) may make a guest appearance.
Many fans will panic and put A (LSU bluster) and B (new names surfacing) together and get C (Michigan has given up on Miles and is looking at other options).
In reality, LSU is bluffing and Michigan is being cautious. Michigan needs names in case Miles turns us down, but Michigan can wait. And LSU knows they only hold one trump card in this game (the ability to deny Miles the title game). They also know that by playing that card they hurt themselves by disrupting a potential national title run. Their goal is make Miles panic and accept a contract extension.
Miles could, should and will tell them no. He should tell them that winning a title for LSU is the only thing he is focusing on, and that while that means he is not talking to Michigan and will not do so until after the season is over, it also means that he is not going to sit down and renegotiate a contract with LSU. His job from now until January 7th is winning LSU a title.
LSU will be left with two choices: wait it out or effectively fire Les Miles on the eve of the title game because he refused to sign an extension. The latter would be unprecedented.
And a third exists: LSU realizes the inevitability of the situation and makes the best of it, reaching an agreement that is acceptable for LSU, for Michigan and for Les Miles. After discussions among the two ADs, they jointly announce that Les Miles will take over for Michigan after he finishes the season at LSU, and that in the interim he will only be involved in the preparation for the bowl game (not the recruiting effort - Bo Pelini is allowed to man those duties and becomes the frontrunner for the HC job at LSU).
I put my money on the first. Michigan can wait. Les Miles can wait. And as long as they do, LSU has no choice but to wait. Les Miles takes over at Michigan on January 10th, 2008, give or take a day.
Bo Schembechler, Tirrel Burton, Lloyd Carr, Tim Davis, Jerry Hanlon, Bill McCartney, Jerry Meter, Les Miles, Gary Moeller, Paul Schudel, Bob Thornbladh, Ron Vanderlinden, Milan Vooletich.
If Les Miles eventually gets this job, that means that in 1980 (and again from 1988 [see image] to 1989 <- thanks Rich), there were 4 current/future Michigan head football coaches prowling the sidelines together in Ann Arbor. Can anyone think of another example of this in modern football history, four head coaches at one program on staff together at the same time?
There were 5 future Division 1-A head coaches on Bo's staff that year (McCartney, Vanderlinden, Moeller, Carr and Miles). Two of them have won national titles (McCartney @ Colorado in 1990 and Carr @ Michigan in 1997) and one is an odds-on favorite to play for one this year (Miles @ LSU).
Lloyd Carr did not get to ride off into the sunset on a glorious high the way so many wanted him to. He rode off in a busted jalopy, the engine limping, the driver with a damaged arm unable to shift out of first gear. He didn't get carried off the field like Earl Bruce; instead, he shook some hands, waited for the crowd to clear and walked out.
But if he didn't get one final triumph, if he didn't get a moment of redemption it's okay, because Lloyd Carr was not a coach in need of redemption. How quickly we forget what all we've seen and what all he's done. One year ago we were all abuzz over a #1 vs. #2 showdown that had been settled by 3 points and which had determined a spot in the national title game. It was the kind of game that made Bo Schembechler a legend, the losses included. Lloyd Carr had answered his ardent detractors, and if they did not scale back their claims it was only because they were not listening.
In 13 years at Michigan, Lloyd Carr maintained the stature of the Michigan program, delivering his fair share of wins and maybe more than his share of big wins. He brought us a national title, our first since 1948, disappointing critics across the country who could no longer taunt Michigan over our long national title drought. And he did it without a single losing season, without ever missing a bowl game, without ever finishing in the bottom half of the Big 10 and without compromising class and integrity.
If the last 7 years of his tenure did not live up to the promise of his first 7 it's a disappointment, but it is not his legacy. A coach's legacy is his body of work, not just his departing note. His legacy is 121-40, not 63-24. His legacy is 6-7 vs OSU and 5 bowl wins, not 0-4 and 0-3. His legacy is a national title and Braylon Edwards and Charles Woodson and Tom Brady, not 14-3 with 91 yards of offense.
Carr may have been boring. If ESPN ever makes a movie about Braylon Edwards, they'll replace Lloyd Carr with a "composite character" based more on Bo Schembechler because Carr doesn't fill out a screen (or a column or a 60 second TV segment) as well as Bo did. He gave us no fascinating personality to write about so we made one up. Not content to let Michigan Football be the story, the way Lloyd Carr always wanted it to be, we created and peddled a fictitious and unflattering image of Lloyd Carr that made for better material.
And not content to complain about bad offensive line play, conservative game plans and poor player development, a disgraceful element of the college football world chose to extend their complaints to the man himself. They blurred the lines between the coach and the coaching, as if it would be impossible for a good man, a smart man and a man loyal to the Michigan football program to lose 5 games in one year. We have message board posters, bloggers and newspaper columnists who warned that Carr was a devious, selfish man, the kid of man who would retire in August and force Bill Martin to hire Jim Herrmann. We heard he would time his retirement announcement to eliminate Les Miles as a candidate. We heard the ridiculous assertion that Carr shipped out assistants whose competence threatened the ascendency of his handpicked successor.
Instead, we got Lloyd Carr at his press conference demonstrating the class he has always demonstrated, and flashing the wry humor that was always there for those who choose to listen. He extended an olive branch to Les Miles. He offered his support to his successor, but no pressure. He didn't complain and he didn't fight. He simply gave his reasons and stepped away.
Lloyd Carr was not forced out. Lloyd Carr did not retire because we lost to Ohio State. Bill Martin did not approach Lloyd Carr and suggest he move on. Lloyd Carr stepped away because he longer wanted to do this, no matter what ESPN's uninformed talking heads may suggest. And with no real evidence to back up their assertion, ESPN pushed that angle on its own, rolling video clips of the losses to Appalachian State and Ohio State on screen as Carr discussed retirement, as if to drive home the fabricated angle that those losses cost Carr his job.
Don't expect apologies. Don't expect any of the message board character assassins to publicly say "Whoa, I was wrong about Lloyd. He didn't do any of those awful things I said he would do." Don't expect ESPN talking heads to comment on the network's badly produced coverage of the rumors and the final event. Don't expect anyone to step back and say they weren't fair to Lloyd Carr. And it won't matter, because Lloyd Carr is also not a coach in need of an apology. The people who really care about the Michigan football program understand what he has done and how he has done it, and that is what matters. He was given an oportunity to do what he loved to do, and for 13 years he did it well and was well rewarded by the people and in the ways that matter most. There is no apology necessary and no redemption required. Just a thank you.
The defense went unchallenged by an opponent playing the ultimate game of Lloydball. Tressell knew that the way we were playing 14-3 was safe, and he wasn't risking anything.
There is *nothing* that a single player or a playcaller can do when the offensive line is as bad as it was today. We laugh at Charlie Weis for thinking he can scheme his way to victory while ignoring the fundamentals, then we turn around and think it's our offensive scheme that causes a loss like this.
The WRs had their worst game of the year. Five drops, at least, none more critical than the 2 by Manningham after the Englemon pick late in the 1st half.
People suggesting that the entire offensive coaching staff should go are ... well, let's not lose the point by being too polite ... they are stupid. See point #3. "Throwing the baby out with the bathwater." Simply changing *everything* instead of figuring out what needs to be changed is a good way to make sure you're back in the same position again soon.
Henne was just not Henne. He was playing great football from the time he came back from the knee until the pick at Wisconsin. He was terrible today, and something was clearly wrong.
Columns based on the idea that the columnist can get inside the heads of Bill Martin and Lloyd Carr and that they know what those two men are not worth reading. There is a difference between an opinion and baseless speculation, and the latter is worthless. And the Michigan fan base loves to worry; all someone has to do is write a plausible sound bit of insane speculation that ends with "head coach Mike DeBord" and a thousand UM fans will stare at it and say "Oh my god, he's right!"
That Mike Hart is the greatest Michigan running back of the last 25 years, and despite no national titles, no OSU wins, no singularly spectacular game winning plays and no Heisman, belongs right up there with Anthony Carter, Charles Woodson and Desmond Howard as a Michigan legend. No player has ever shown the combination of fight, desire, power and prowess that Hart has shown.
That only injury has prevented Chad Henne from going down as the greatest Michigan quarterback in the dropback era.
That the Lloyd Carr era has been good for Michigan. Extending the streak of winning seasons and bowl appearances while putting a stake through the "hasn't won a title since ..." has done more for Michigan than 7 straight wins over OSU ever could.
That Brandent Englemon's is the great overlooked story of the 2007 Wolverines. From 2* recruit brought in (some thought) as a locker room kid and not as a player, to the anchor of an improving secondary, it's the kind of story that would get told and retold if not for Hart, the injuries and Appalachian State.
That Michigan will beat Ohio State because 0-4 for Hart and 0-4 for Henne is no way to go out. That not a single good thing has happened since Bo Schembechler passed away, and one year later is a perfect time for the world to turn back around.
That I'd rather lose with class than win with Tressell.
That I don't care if I have nothing to back up the obvious insult there. I don't need justification - he is Buckeye. I am Wolverine.
That I'd rather go 10-3 with Mike Hart than 12-1 without him.
That Chad Henne has at least one Tom Brady vs. Alabama, Drew Henson vs. Auburn type game left in his Michigan career.
That there comes a time when you are ready to trade your current frustrations for a whole new catalog of frustrations, and that honeymoon period people talk about is that window when you even the new guy's idiosyncracies are a breath of fresh air. After a couple of years, those idiosyncracies aren't charming anymore, they're irritating, and you ask yourself why he's making the same mistakes 3 years in. And you start remembering fondly the predecessor who didn't make *those* mistakes.
That my next blog entry will be a celebration, not a dirge.
